[deebat]

Just saw this article in stuff.co.nz about a possible upcoming decrease in house prices: http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3113807a13,00.html. Apologies if this has been posted elsewhere already.

Could be good news?!

-Dan

[Timbo]

Hi Dan. We are getting predictions of a similar nature here as well unfortunately. Will just have to hold on tight and see what tommorrow brings I guess.

[toots]

When we left the UK back in June there were reports that the housing market in NZ was overvalued by around 30%.

Some of the prices here are quite ridiculous, fuelled by high immigration from countries where house prices were high.

The Wespac economic reports make interesting reading.
http://www.westpactrust.co.nz/olcontent/olcontent.nsf/Content/Economic+&+Financial+Markets+reports?OpenDocument& refr=Business

[Moorf]

For a "real life" scenario..

I have a 1 bed flat on the seafront in Worthing that I rent out.

I had it valued end of 2003 at £110k

I had it valued 3 weeks ago at £90k

:?

Moorf

[Timbo]

NZ Herald Dec 1st 04

House prices forecast to slide


Homebuyers advised to take time before purchasing following report suggesting prices will slide by 4% on average in 2005



1 December 2004

Some advice to would-be house buyers in the face of the latest prediction about prices - take your time.

A new report suggests property prices nationwide will slide by an average four percent next year, before rising again.

Professor Bob Hargreaves of Massey University thinks that prediction is likely to be accurate.

He says people not in a hurry to buy should look around and not be pressured into a quick purchase.

But Professor Hargreaves says people should not wait more than a couple of years hoping for a big slump.

[Danpoll]

as homer simpson would say

whoo hoo.

and the dollar has fallen to its lowest level in 13 years 1.91 to the pound whoo hoo.

lets hope NZ dollar follows suit.

Dan

[Moorf]

Read something similar in The Press yesterday... i.e. Chch set to fall 3% to mid 2005 with rises after... and most of the remainder of the country to be static!

Wish they'd make up their minds!!

[karltsmith]

Of couse in waiting a couple of years for a drop you still have to live ie rent a place. Rent is dead money and at a 4% drop you would still do better buying IMHO.

Karl

[markkellaway]

There's lots of "economic" stuff about lately, this and currencies being 2. I think if anyone can accurately predict what the world economy is going to do over the next year or so, then that person could make an awful lot of money.

In my opinion any speculation on property price movement is just that, speculation (either here in the UK or in NZ). If you find a place you love then I would buy it, as Karl says, if you intend to buy at some point renting is dead money. Short term losses in value are not reason to put off buying houses unless you are after a quick buck, long term losses and mortgaging up to the hilt, now that's another thing.

Just my 2 pennies worth. :nice1

Mark. :P

[jo b]

Sound advice Mark and Karl,

what really gets me is all the press speculate a property price drop but when you look in depth at their figures it is mainly the South East were property prices are dropping but up North they are still predicted to rise :nice1 .

Just my penneth worth.

Jo

[markkellaway]

Hi Jo,

To get articles read the press make things controversial, just the way of the world. I live in Poole, which is about as south as you can get, and I've seen as many reports of prices due to rise as fall. I actually think that what we've seen is that people are marketing their prices at a realistic price rather than a few thousand over to chance it. In the south the lower price properties, those attractive for buy to let I think, have gone down in value but the middle ground is pretty much the same. Remember also that to the press "south" actually tends to mean "London", which is a different kettle of fish altogether.

I'll start to worry when we put the house on the market in Feb/March and no one comes to see it!! :no

Cheers,

Mark. :P

[jo b]

Me too

new carpets, decorating etc. fingers crossed for when the time comes :hopeso

Mark, where abouts are you and yours headed for?

Jo

[markkellaway]

Hi Jo,

We will be heading for Christchurch, were over there in May and loved it. My wife would prefer Blenheim but there isn't much call for software product managers there! :no

How about you?

Mark. :P

[jo b]

We are headed for Tauranga Mark,

We are going to Visit Chc in March next year. we fly into there and will work our way up.

I do not think I will be able to work full time as I do now due to not having family on hand. :yes

Also I am fed up of whizzing around the country, :roll: I work for BT as a National Sales Manager. So I fancy working for my self.

Jo :P

[toots]

Hi Jo,
I live in Poole, which is about as south as you can get, and I've seen as many reports of prices due to rise as fall. :P

We bought and sold a house in Merley, Wimborne at the time of the last property crash in the early 90s. Lost £40K on it and were lucky not to end up in -ve equity. We had to move a more expensive area in West Sussex and were hard up for years afterwards.

Once bitten and all that....but I'm very wary of buying here just at the moment. My money can be earning interest whilst I wait for the exchange rate to improve. The interest offsets the rent we are paying so we are no worse off anyway.

[Wannaway]

Agree with Toots. Our money is still in UK earning gross int (albeit T lower rate than here) but if we can live off Lee's earnings here we consider it a better bet to wait until the exchange rate improves to transfer the funds over here. Just a few points on the rate can make a huge amount of difference to what we get in NZ$.

We are renting because we want to live here a year to be absolutely sure where we want to live. Auckland was not our first choice although we like living here. I think a year is a decent stretch of time to find our bearings, check out all the different areas here so if we do decide to stay in AKL we will know where we want to be.

We have had a look at a few houses and have yet to be 'blown away' despite the high prices being quoted.

General advice is that Sterling is a bit bearish at the moment, possibly if Labout get in again it may cause a short term spike (improvement) in the exchange rate.

Nicky

[Timbo]

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Residential consents start to fall
14 January 2005
By SUE ALLEN

Predictions of a cooling economy appear to be filtering through with November residential building consents falling a seasonally adjusted 5.7 per cent from October.


According to Statistics New Zealand figures issued yesterday, most of the drop off was fuelled by a fall in the number of consents for apartments, which were down from 708 in October to 637 in November.

Excluding apartments, the seasonally adjusted number of residential consents for November was down just 0.8 per cent at 1902.

The figures are in line with an overall downward trend in the residential market which started in December 2003, Statistics New Zealand said.

Commercial consents bucked the trend, rising 43 per cent for the year to November.

BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander said the strong divergence in prospects for the commercial sector, as opposed to residential construction, was a surprise.

"But we can now see pretty clearly a decline in the number of residential consents being issued around the country and...it is a reasonably rapid one as well."

Commercial construction was experiencing an "absolute boom", he said.

That was being driven by companies moving to better, more modern premises to boost productivity, as well as a shortage of available commercial space pushing up rental yields and attracting investors.

The fall off in the residential building sector was in line with BNZ's prediction that economic growth would slow this year to about 2.5 per cent from 4.9 per cent last year.

In the year to November, 31,618 consents for new dwelling units were issued, up 6 per cent on the previous year.

Twelve of New Zealand's 16 regions recorded a fall in residential consents in November, compared to the previous year.

Consents in Wellington were down 44 to 167. In Auckland, they were down 28 to 1181.

ANZ National Bank chief economist John McDermott said that though consents had dropped by 5 per cent in November, that had to be seen in the context of an October high where consents were up 12.3 per cent.

Though the year appeared to be starting with a negative tone, the economy was not in crisis mode but falling back to more moderate growth of between 2.5 per cent and 3 per cent from strong growth in 2004, he said.

"The economy is going to take a little bit of a breather.

"It's going to be a little bit slower but no one is talking about recession," he said.

"We are a long way from that."

Though building consents were volatile, if the pattern was repeated across smaller indicators, such as retail sales and the trade sector, then economists would go from "interested to concerned", he said.