[nippa&pippa]

I have been watching exchange rates for last few weeks because we need right time to exchange GBP to NZD for house sale....
Anyone agree now it is good times to exchange or holding it back till finger crossed going higher??? Don't want to find it fall next day or miss out if going up furthur!!! wish all of these are easy!! :mad:

[willsken]

Sophia

I don't think anyone knows what's going to happen. I have been told to expect it to go back up to around the 3 mark but it may not be until as late as December. Now a few months ago I was to to expect it to go back up by this May. Well, that didn't happen.

I have come to the conclusion that I'm not going to put my life on hold any more and I will bring my money over when I need it. As, Zardel I think, said change it when you need it and don't look at the rate again!! :yes

[speckythecky]

Don't let the exchange rate rule you life, unless you are very lucky, you will not get it at the top of it value.
If you need that money, take it, and then never look at the rate again

[thezorbster]

Only you can decide when is right for you, if we could all tell what was going to happen with the financial markets then we would all be so much richer. I agree with everyone else, just exchange when you need to exchange then don't keep checking.

[KildareKiwi]

Don't know who you are using to transfer your money but I would recommend MoneyCorp. Have used them before. Very favourable rates - usually 1.5% below the spot. They also offer a free weekly email subscription regarding different currencies - the NZ$ included, which is quite useful.
I'm a Kiwi moving back home later this year, and I keep an extremely close eye on the rates via www.xe.com.
I agree with the others. The rates are difficult to judge. The Reserve Bank of NZ is meeting again I believe on 07/06/07 to discuss further interest rate increases. If they increase rates again I can't imagine the exchange rate getting too much more favourable for you in the immediate short term. If they don't increase then it may be worth holding off for a little while.
I agree with the others though - you can't put your life on hold & remember that when you do transfer your money - you can be earning a good rate of interest in a kiwi bank, which will at least be some consolation should the NZ$ fall.

KildareKiwi

[beano_bill]

I have been watching exchange rates for last few weeks because we need right time to exchange GBP to NZD for house sale....
Anyone agree now it is good times to exchange or holding it back till finger crossed going higher??? Don't want to find it fall next day or miss out if going up furthur!!! wish all of these are easy!! :mad:

We've been doing exactly the same as you, when we got here I hadn't looked at the exchange rate thinking it would still be around $2.75 to the GBP. Imagine my surprise when I was quoted $2.61 :wah

I've just looked on www.xe.com & they're quoting $2.73 / GBP so I may bite the bullet, take the money and run...... oh, and never EVER look at the rate again (as I just know it'll do something to upset me, like hit $3 / GBP)

Beano

[nippa&pippa]

We've been doing exactly the same as you, when we got here I hadn't looked at the exchange rate thinking it would still be around $2.75 to the GBP. Imagine my surprise when I was quoted $2.61 :wah

I've just looked on www.xe.com & they're quoting $2.73 / GBP so I may bite the bullet, take the money and run...... oh, and never EVER look at the rate again (as I just know it'll do something to upset me, like hit $3 / GBP)

Beano

Done it last friday while at 0.3621 but not look at rate again since......i took others' advices!! :nice1

[whiskythedog]

at the moment i would dream of 2.73! back down to 2.58 + interest rate OCR (base rate) up to 8.0% - double whammy !)
fingers crossed for next few months when we have to bring loot over

[Sam B]

OH NOOOO, I have absolutely no choice, as soon as we complete on UK house (hopefully next week) we will have to rush our money over to complete here, and it's the lowest ever. AARRRGGGHHHHHHHHHHHH. I'm so stressed at the moment. I'm never buying or selling another house as long as I live.

[Rabbit]

at the moment i would dream of 2.73! back down to 2.58 + interest rate OCR (base rate) up to 8.0% - double whammy !)
fingers crossed for next few months when we have to bring loot over

Whilst I cannot predict the future, I read somewhere it would hit NZ 80c against the US dollar and then crash to 62c - you never know.

A third of fixed rate mortgages are up for renewal this year, and many immigrants may be holding off buying property because of currency rises - so who knows in a few months - it may be a good time?

The high currency and increased property prices may be an opportunity for many to escape to other climbs.

Factor in NZ interest rate rises, high debt levels, paying pension contributions rather than pay rises, the next six months in NZ are going to be interesting.

[StevieD]

Looks pretty grim at the moment doesn't it?? :(

[nippa&pippa]

Phew, good job I did exchange the money few weeks ago while at good high then! But then I still haven't look at rate chart to see how it went in last few weeks......

[whiskythedog]

yes very interesting times-hopefully it will keep the auckland houses prices fairly stable by time we want to buy
wishing for a price crash sounds good but wouldnt be good for overall economy (and mine..)
i work for an auckland residential property investment company so i am well placed for any signs of a downturn (it hasnt happened yet but early days)
auckland market may well be more resistant due to demand (much the same as london as i understand there is the beginnings of a slowdown in some other parts of uk ?)
a successful america's cup/rugby world cup will also boost the nz market as nz will appear on outside investors radar again
(that nice lord archer made $nz 2million first time americas cup came to auckland by buying land north of auckland - lovely views of race! sold it back to local council for huge profit)

[whiskythedog]

newsflash! (4.10pm mon 11 ) nz reserve bank steps in to weaken nz dollar - first time in 20 years as it considers it to be exceptionally high
already lost ground (1cent) against us dollar so expect so brisk trade when london opens up for trading....i think we will be in for a rollercoaster of a ride

[suebeenz]

Saw some analysts talk about this on tv. They saw it as a desparate act with no long term positive effects. I guess time will tell. The dollar is killing me in the meantime. :wah

[Sam B]

GNMMPH - hope the exchange rate improves by friday, when HOPEFULLY we will complete on the house. Off to itch nervous rash.

[beano_bill]

newsflash! (4.10pm mon 11 ) nz reserve bank steps in to weaken nz dollar - first time in 20 years as it considers it to be exceptionally high

Just for those that haven't seen it yet (though it's probably just me again) :

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4091520a10.html

Interesting quote near the bottom of this:

"Given it's their first time and it's clearly thought out, I think it's going to be highly effective."

If so, it'll :cheers & :raebanana all round.

Beano

[Tia Maria]

Thanks Beano, that's a really useful link!

Cheers

Tia

[photoger]

"Given it's their first time and it's clearly thought out, I think it's going to be highly effective."



I hope Dr. Bollard knows what he's doing. It sounds worryingly like Norman Lamont and the ERM shambles all over again. The market is valuing a currency at X. The central bank tries to intervene to push it to value Y. BUT the market (hedge funds) has deeper pockets than the Reserve Bank AND they have the natural trend on their side. I hope NZ isn't $7 billion poorer at the end of all this.

[CjChris]

I hope there is an upward trend with the exchange rate....since this time last year, we've nervously watched a steady decline!! The only way we can afford property (with no mortgage) is if the exchange rate works in our favor a lot more than it does right now!

And the exchange rate will determine if I have to work immediately upon arrival in NZ or be a bum for a while......;)

[JulesB]

Thank you RBNZ for selling NZD someone had to the supply had dried up!!
We are also about to purchase a house in NZ and it was starting to go way over my most pessimist estimate.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10444876

Jules

[Nathan]

It's a long way from where the exchange rate is (NZ$1.33/US$) to where it was only three months ago (NZ$1.47/US$). I'm not ready to bring out bananas yet. (OK, I'll go to my room and be pesimistic by myself now.)

[whiskythedog]

well its going the right way now
mon 11 has weakened by 1.5% against sterling nearly 4 cents
so thats extra nz$4000 per £100000 to spend on a house
which may push up prices
so must increase interest rate
which strengthens nz dollar...oh dear my head is hurting
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/default.stm

[NooDleS]

shhhhh!!! Don't jinx it! I exchange my monies next week!

[Sam B]

Me too.

[whiskythedog]

new zealand interest rate to be announced 9.00am tomorrow morning (10pm uk time)
likely that it will go up to 8.25% base rate
exchange rate to get even worse -2.55nz $ to £ now before any interest rate rise
i hope i am wrong !!

[Super_BQ]

I wonder if the NZ gov't knows that currency intervention does nothing in the long term. I just hope it doesn't become a habit as big currency hedgers like George Soros on Wall Street know how to play this game. hint - follow ups of the NZ stock market crash back in the mid 80s.

Michael Cullen said: "Today's action is a reminder to people if they over invest in the New Zealand dollar they could suffer losses."

Says it just like a politician. At the same time he introduced new foreign investment tax laws that discourage local Kiwis to invest overseas and at the same time says that NZ should invest heavily in the country. It's no wonder why people just buy houses in NZ.

Who's at fault? Simply Mr Cullen and Bollard havn't done their job - they all should be fired in Apprentice style.

Why all this pussy footing? Over a period of 5 years we saw nothing but slow painful, gradual, .25 raises of interest rates. His phobia of putting the NZ economy in recession was WAY OFF the target. From Dec 2003, we saw 13 small rate hikes with inflation a core problem and the working class person jus foots the bill.

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monpol/statements/0090630.html

Is the cat out of the bag? The difference now is that those 2 puppets have to deal with big worldwide currency traders when in the past, it could of been controlled at the local level. Let's pray for 10% in 2 years.

BQ

[Island Moose]

So if I'm not in a rush to exchange my money, should I just deposit it into a foreign currency account and wait for the NZ dollar to go back down? Will that happen this year?

[whiskythedog]

uk/nz rate getting much better now !!
huge 1 cent spike during today and its off and running 2.75 $nz/£
(up 20 cents in 1 month)
nice!! got to pay for a house in six weeks - will it get higher or should we start changing now ?

[incredible hulse]

Personally expect it to go lower against the pound. Recent sales figures have showed less consumer spending which, along with the apparent cooling in the housing market, would help in no increase in short term interest rates; that said the kiwi has been a bit of a dark horse over the last 9 months so wouldn't put the mortgage on it

[Tia Maria]

2.77 now! :eek:

Where will it stop?!

And just to clarify, this big fall starting happening about 2 hours after I changed some £s to $NZs. As this has happened before I'm starting to get suspicious. I bet if I changed some more tomorrow it would be at $3 to £1 by Saturday!

Cheers

Tia

[willsken]

Please change some more then!!!! :D

[Gilly1973]

Hi, So what do people think will happen with the rate. Do you expect it to continue improving for those seeking to exchange sterling into dollars. I am due to make the move to NZ in 6 weeks and wondering if to hang on to see what happens. I am a novice when it comes to anything financial.

Cheers

[Nathan]

1.00 Usd = 1.41288 Nzd
That looks so good after the slide to 1.49 down to 1.19!
:cheers :cheers :cheers

[incredible hulse]

Hi, So what do people think will happen with the rate. Do you expect it to continue improving for those seeking to exchange sterling into dollars. I am due to make the move to NZ in 6 weeks and wondering if to hang on to see what happens. I am a novice when it comes to anything financial.

Cheers

Personally think sterling will continue to improve against NZD. Interest rates are tipped to rise to 6% in UK before yr end whilst I can't see any need for NZ to do the same with consumer spending, currency and housing markets all turning negative in comparison to recent history. I've taken to trading between the 2 currencies over the last year and am personally waiting for 2.95/1 + before dabbling again. One thing I have noticed is when the kiwi starts to move it tends to do it quickly and fairly dramatically; if you do some charting of the currenty there's definitely pattern there. That's only my opinion and I don't profess to be an expert in anyway.

[whiskythedog]

i think the uk/nz rate will get better as well
watch out for the 20th next week - a few billion dollars worth of japanese/euro currency bonds are to roll over or not (i will come back with a link)
if they dont there is a fair chance the rate will get even better
this is more likely than not as the NZ$ is considered a risky investment at present and world markets are minimising risks at present

based on data provided by nz herald (from jan 1985) exchange rate has fluctuated massively 3.60 to 2.20 and this averages out at around 2.84 - a very volatile currency !

[whiskythedog]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/topic/story.cfm?c_id=167&objectid=10457560

[Tia Maria]

2.89! :eek: :eek:

Will I have to bring out the third shocked face tomorrow!

Cheers

Tia

[mgbridges]

2.91 a few minutes ago - if it hits 3.00 I'm calling my bank in the UK!

Martin

[M&J]

I'm now getting addicted to checking the exchange rate!!!!:D

Nail biting stuff!!

[speckythecky]

On hte question of the interest rates in UK. Inflation has dropped dramatically last month and the BoE voted 9 to 0 to leave the rate unchanged this month.

I hope this rate keeps going up until we have sold.

[StevieD]

And the kiwi dollar is dropping at a dramatic rate, so looking good for the £-$ rate :)

[Mickstim]

Wow - just looked at rate today and it is $2.89 to the £. If it keeps going at this rate we can afford to take a bit of a hit on the house and still end up with enough dollars for our needs in NZ.

[Rabbit]

NZ$3.20 -> 1 UK pound by Christmas?

[renew]

NZ$3.20 -> 1 UK pound by Christmas?

I do hope so... need a bit of good luck in this whole process....

[holland]

ooooo, bring it on...I certainly hope so, just checked now and its 2.91 to £1.00...up up and away !

[Nathan]

1 Usd = 1.46960 Nzd! :clap :clap :clap

[speckythecky]

if it continues this way it might hit 3 nz$ to 1gbp by the end of the day. If only I had the money to exchange.

[Mickstim]

I agree Specky - it's up to $2.93 now and $3 is not far off. Amazing! I hope lots of people are able to cash in.

Bx

[willowshouse]

I agree Specky - it's up to $2.93 now and $3 is not far off. Amazing! I hope lots of people are able to cash in.

Bx

Ssshh, they'll hear you! :laugh I already hear too many "you and your english pounds" comments .. although it is mostly from one person. Anyway, keep it under your hat :exit

[Sam B]

Has anyone waiting to exchange a large amount lost their nerve and hit the confirm button yet - should I wait until tomorrow?? Or even longer...?

[speckythecky]

If I had money to change I would probably have lost my bottle about now. I was watching my shares all last week, ready to cash them in and take the money, in the last 7 days I have lost 12%, so it looks like I am keeping them for a few more months.

[Tia Maria]

Sam B wrote:

Has anyone waiting to exchange a large amount lost their nerve and hit the confirm button yet - should I wait until tomorrow?? Or even longer...?

I'll start with the usual disclaimer, I'm no expert but .....

my undersatnding was there are a few pieces of important news coming out next week, particularly on Monday, which should cause some more volatility. But it probably depends on your situation as to whether you want to ride out that gamble.

I wonder if there will initially be a bounce back if it hits 3.00, as I imagine quite a few people might have fixed 3.00 as their magic number?

Cheers

Tia

[Chiba]

If it's difficult for you Sterling holders to pull the trigger, imagine what it's like for us folks holding Yen! 16% in a week!

[willowshouse]

Has anyone waiting to exchange a large amount lost their nerve and hit the confirm button yet - should I wait until tomorrow?? Or even longer...?

I changed up a largeish small amount when I saw it had gone up about 10c .. especially as every time I hit refresh it was falling back down .. I got 2.89 in the end compared to the 2.55 I got about 3/ weeks ago :no .. it made a difference of $3,000.

Anyway, in answer to your question .. I'm still holding on to change the big money :uhoh

Dawn

[Sam B]

What are you holding on for Dawn? We're kind of hoping for 3 to 1, but maybe this is greedy?

[willowshouse]

Haven't set an actual figure although 3 was originally the magic number .. We'll see how it pans out over the next few weeks I think. Someone in the biz did mention 3.30 but that was with a 2 year timeframe and you can't put it off indefinitely can you! If it did hit 3 I'm sure we'd be in a hurry to change it but if it steadies at 2.95 (so approx 2.97 mid-rate) I reckon that would be pretty cool. Fingers crossed eh!

[willowshouse]

I am completely fascinated with what is happening at the moment .. anyone else watching it avidly? I just saw it drop a cent and a half in a matter of minutes ... what to do, what to do..

I did this last night as well and watched it go down and then back up, down and then back up .. it like a bloody yo-yo!

Anyone got any pearls of wisdom?

Dawn

[Sam B]

Well I keep going on XEtrade to see what rate they will offer me now, and they have been unable to give me an exchange rate all day, I just keep getting an error page - arrgghh. What are you watching it on Dawn?

[willowshouse]

I'm on xe.com Sam .. what browser are you on? I have two on my computer and I do find sometimes that if I have a problem with one I can still get it on the other one .. which is at the moment Safari. Mind you I'm just checking the mid-rate not the trade rate - I'll check it now and get back to you.

Dawn

[willowshouse]

Well! I can get onto the site and get a trade BUT .. the mid rate quoted at the mo is 2.878 and they are offering me 2.814!!!!!! I have never known it be so much below the quoted mid-rate!! When I did my last trade the mid rate was 2.91 and I got 2.89 .. are they cashing in or protecting themselves??


:confused:

[Sam B]

I still can't get a rate at all, most annoying. I'll try another browser, thanks for the advice. So annoying though, on Friday night at (pm, we were offered 2.93 and we didn't press confirm because we were shocked at how good it was and thought we should wait to see if it gets any better, and now it has gone down. I wish we had pressed confirm!!!

[Tia Maria]

Sam B - there is really a lot happening next week in the world of finance, nearly everyone I know is waiting to see what will happen on Monday, so if you can - be near your PC tomorrow, just in case!

Cheers

Tia

[willowshouse]

At least the margins are back to normal .. the trade rate is $0.02 less than the quoted mid-rate again (2.84 currently)

[Sam B]

oooooh, thanks Tia, I'm glued to my refresh rate button.

[M&J]

[QUOTE=willowshouse;146807]I changed up a largeish small amount when I saw it had gone up about 10c .. especially as every time I hit refresh it was falling back down .. I got 2.89 in the end compared to the 2.55 I got about 3/ weeks ago :no .. it made a difference of $3,000.

We changed a small amount and got 2.88 last Thursday which again was better than the 2.58 we got 6 weeks ago thank goodness.

I am completely addicted to checking the rate, watching and watching. We have a large amount to come over but the house sale won't go through for at least another week so I have my fingers crossed it will be ok then. I think as long as it it around 2.90 we would b happy although 3.0 would be great. :confused:

Going back to check the rate!!

[Tia Maria]

Willowshouse wrote:

Well! I can get onto the site and get a trade BUT .. the mid rate quoted at the mo is 2.878 and they are offering me 2.814!!!!!! I have never known it be so much below the quoted mid-rate!! When I did my last trade the mid rate was 2.91 and I got 2.89 .. are they cashing in or protecting themselves??

Did this happen when you checked rates at the weekend? Sometimes that can make a difference.

Cheers

Tia

[willowshouse]

Yes .. it was at the weekend Tia. Why do you suppose that is? It was back to normal on Monday.

[Sam B]

Grrrrr, WISH I'd exchanged on Friday night when I got 2.93, why am I so greedy????? Nowt exciting happened yesterday, Tia, do you still think something might happen this week?

[incredible hulse]

Grrrrr, WISH I'd exchanged on Friday night when I got 2.93, why am I so greedy????? Nowt exciting happened yesterday, Tia, do you still think something might happen this week?
Most of what was due to happen this month occured yesterday - about 2.5billion's worth of NZ based bonds matured. From the market movements since it looks like there was not a huge sell off of these as could hve potentially happened. I think this allied to the rise in US stocks helping the market to be less jittery has helped the kiwi slightly as the widespread panic and resulting risk aversion has calmed. Still hoping for >2.95:1 by the end of August though

[Sam B]

Right, I'm hanging on then...

[Tia Maria]

Its off again, currently:

NZ$2.87:£1

Its moved a lot in the last couple of hours, not sure why and not sure if it will continue like last time.

Cheers

Tia

[Sam B]

ooooooooooohhhhhh, I'm staying up all night. I'm not going to be greedy this time, I've decided on 2.93.

[Tia Maria]

Just for you Nathan ..... bump!

Cheers

Tia

[The Hodges]

ooooooooooohhhhhh, I'm staying up all night. I'm not going to be greedy this time, I've decided on 2.93.

As Tia's spotted - $2.94 to the GPB - so Sam, have you exchanged yet?