[Sam B]

Thought I would just start this thread so that I stop getting my hopes up when I see the other one!

[Chiba]

Don't worry just yet. The prediction(s) on Bloomberg are that the initial "wahey!" feeling in the US (from the 0.5% interest rate cut) will be replaced in a few days by an "ohhhhh frak, they must have done that because we're really in the feldercarp" feeling.

Basically, people are back doing carry trades. For now.

Set your limit. Trade when it hits it. Automatically for preference, as you can then stop worrying about it...

[Sam B]

I don't know about that automatic thing. I set it at 2.97 last time and have been regretting missing out on 2.93 ever since. There's this bach in Rotorua I want to buy you see.....

[StevieD]

Sam you can wait forever, just do it, get it over with and stop worrying LOL
It could be worse, it could be like 2.52 like it was a few weeks ago......

[speckythecky]

Having spoken to my trader on Monday he was saying that they were hoping for .5% and that the market would be worse if the rate was only cut by .25%. If he was right then we should see an improvement in the next couple of days. Of course he could be wrong.

[Sam B]

Stevie - I can only afford my bach if I exchange on 2.93 or above. So no, I'm waiting!

[Tia Maria]

'Sam, go on wait, you know you want to! It could just hit 3 by next Friday ..... go on just another week' Says Tia sitting on the other shoulder to StevieD! :p

Cheers

Tia

[lockstock]

Are we glass half full or glass half empty here?!! I'm trying to be ever so optimistic and not panic but it's getting lower and lower. Only a week or so ago we could have exchanged but didn't. You've got to have nerves of steel for this lark haven't you?

We're hanging on in there. Don't panic Mr Mainwaring! Don't panic!

[Sam B]

Well, I'm with Tia, cos she's saying what I want to hear AND she won the prize for the most accurate prediction in the competition, so she's clearly a secret financial expert!

[lockstock]

I'm with you there Sam B. Let's hope Tia can cope with the responsibility!!

[Tia Maria]

Lockstock wrote:

I'm with you there Sam B. Let's hope Tia can cope with the responsibility!!

Of course I can! (she slurs, having drunk her third Tia Maria with breakfast that morning). I've got sterves of neel don't you know!?! :uhoh

Cheers

Tia

[speckythecky]

Love it Tia, any other predicitions you would like to share with us all.

[peebles16]

Bless you Tia you do make me giggle. :laugh
Been following this thread a bit but not too worried cos still in the UK with house to sell - more interested now in the banter than the exchange rate!!
Karen

[thezorbster]

Ooh Tia, keep those positive predictions going. Due to the appalling inefficiencies of A&L who just failed to transfer our money on time we missed out on the brilliant rates and are now hanging on with bated breath......

[Sam B]

Look, I know I'm always harping on about this, but can anyone explain to me why it's so bad at the moment. I've got to bring all my dosh over within the next 4 weeks to complete on the land, and I don't know whether to just do it at this rubbish rate, or hang on. Is the exchange rate in free-fall forever? Can anyone help??

[incredible hulse]

Part of the reason is the Northern Rock issue leading to an expectation of interest rates drop in UK now rather than increase to avert a house price panic

[lockstock]

Let's hope Sir Richard of Branson can sort it all out. Virgin Money? Is he kidding?

[akp713]

These changes in the exchange rate are really hurting me. Since I live in the US I have to deal with the plummeting US dollar, which is now worth less than the Canadian dollar for the first time since 1976. The kiwi dollar bough USD 0.61 when I was there last year, but now it buys USD 0.76 and rising. I am planning to attend university in NZ in 2008 and my tuition goes up and up now. Since I need to take US student loans to pay for the tuition I will then be paying back those loans in NZ dollars when I get a job teaching in NZ after graduating. Thus this exchange rate change is having a huge effect on my future. If the NZ dollar is strong now but plummets next year or later then it will be difficult to pay back my US loans, which already total US$20,000 for my BA and this will add another US$14,000.

[maracuja]

I found this site today - https://fxtrade.oanda.com/

I don't know if it's a good one for actually trading currency, but they have a useful chart to show how the rate is moving. Unfortunately it doesn't look like they have GBP/NZD as one of the options, but it's good for watching the current USD/NZD rate.

if you set the interval to "3 hour" it'll show about a week worth.

[Sam B]

OOOOHHHH!!! AAAARRRGGGHHH!!! What is wrong with me? WHAT IS WRONG WITH ME???? I think I have some previously undiscovered congenital impairment that prevents me from hitting the confirm button when I should. I've only got 1 week left before I have to exchange, or alternatively get a mortgage, and last weekend it hit a perfectly respectable 2.75 .... but did I hit confirm?? DID I HELL. I dithered about and thought it might carry on going up and now of course it's been plummeting ever since.

That's IT, I resign. I resign from being a grown up and I resign from having any responsibility for exchanging money EVER AGAIN. ARRRGGHHHH.

[victoria]

Sam, do you want to borrow a slightly overworked,been through the ringer,frayed around the edges Guardian Angel? I reckon there is still a spark of life left in it.

[Sam B]

I need something Victoria, a frayed guardian angel may just do the trick, plus the exchange rate going back above 2.7 again, and this time I PROMISE I will hit confirm.

[pinkpiggy]

That's IT, I resign. I resign from being a grown up and I resign from having any responsibility for exchanging money EVER AGAIN. ARRRGGHHHH.

Would that we could all resign Sam. :laugh :laugh Let's hope the interest rates takes a turn for the better so you can have your land mortgage free.

[willsken]

I need something Victoria, a frayed guardian angel may just do the trick, plus the exchange rate going back above 2.7 again, and this time I PROMISE I will hit confirm.

Oh Sam.... didn't you do it??? I too am regretting not bringing some over at that rate. Will we never learn!!!!! :uhoh :uhoh :uhoh

[Tia Maria]

Well its 2.7 ....... but you know it could go higher ........ what are you going to do Sam!?! :p

I should point out that I have to change some money in the next couple of weeks, so I predict it will to shoot up straight after!

Cheers

Tia

[Sam B]

OMG, here I go again, fingers trembling over the confirm button....

[victoria]

well Sam, I'm in a similar situation as I've set an amount with Hifex but I've also borne in mind the minimum I could accept(we have a 3 ish week window). So if you've read my extremely intelligent behaviour in buying our next property(how to make house buying exciting in NZ) maybe you ought to ignore any suggestions from me.

[Nathan]

It's no longer at the bottom. That's when I trade.
Maybe I should just start posting when I traded so the rest of you will know the exchange rate is going to improve!
:cheers
Nathan

[Tia Maria]

This post is just for you Sam, as I'm sure its below the rate you traded at, so now you can work out how much you saved rather than lost!

2.66 :(

Of course as you don't check these threads anymore you probably won't read this! :p

Cheers

Tia

[Sam B]

YAYYYYY!!!!!! That makes me SOOOO happy!!!

[flatshoes]

all my income is not only variable and freelance but also in USD, it really killed us living here, what with the house prices and cost of living and all. First time I came to visit it was at, 41 or so to the dollar, now it's heading back up towards 80 (holding painful gut). Wondering when it will get better...I would say it greatly affected our quality of life to have the currency exchange rate problem, nice to have a beach within a short drive and all, but not when you can't stop working enough to go out and enjoy it really. One cannot eat scenery, etc.

[willsken]

Flatshoes, sorry to here things are tough. Must be stressful living at the mercy of the ER. I only have a bit to bring over and I know the stress it causes me.:no

[flatshoes]

thanks for the sympathy willsken...yeah, I feel like I have aged about 20 years since moving here. I would advise people to bring a chunk over with them and look for a job paying local currency.

[akp713]

I'm in the same boat flatshoes, I will be starting grad school in Auckland in February but my tuition keeps going up as the US dollar falls, when I got to NZ in 2006 the NZD was at 61 cents. On the other hand I will then be getting a job in NZ and trying to pay back US student loans. So starting in 2009 I have to hope the US dollar stays very weak. Unfortunately that's when Bush leaves office and the economy may recover from the endless deficits he ran up and the massive spending on Iraq could slow down. Oh well, I have my fingers crossed.

[flatshoes]

I'm in the same boat flatshoes, I will be starting grad school in Auckland in February but my tuition keeps going up as the US dollar falls, when I got to NZ in 2006 the NZD was at 61 cents. On the other hand I will then be getting a job in NZ and trying to pay back US student loans. So starting in 2009 I have to hope the US dollar stays very weak. Unfortunately that's when Bush leaves office and the economy may recover from the endless deficits he ran up and the massive spending on Iraq could slow down. Oh well, I have my fingers crossed.

Wow, hope it works out. It can make a significant difference, believe you me. I learned the very hard way. Had I stayed in the States, I could have saved 80K net. My house and car were already paid for. I'll be lucky to come out of my current situation (if I come out of it at all) with less than half that and many many expenses I would not otherwise have had to make.
As for the XR, Hard to say how it'll swing, there are a lot of factors feeding into the world economy right now, China just bought one of the big U.S. investment banks I think I heard the other day? Then there's peak oil, Mideast tensions, etc., this election year is shaping up to be a good show. I am not sure how much the Democrats - if they get in - will pull back on the "War on Terror". It's Tweedle Dee Tweedle Dum to a certain extent politically over there. I would rather they waged a "War on Deficit Spending" too. ;P
The subprime mortgage crisis may also have ripple effects that are worse than what we are seeing now. You have probably read about people charging their mortgages on their credit cards and all. Argh. Kiwis carry enormous debt loads (homes and stuff mostly it seems, rather than consumer debt? what is the structure of Kiwi household or personal debt?) and seem more comfortable with them than I am. I would rather live modestly but debt-free.

[lockstock]

My heart is sinking every time I look at the HiFX site. It is plummeting. Will the drop in UK interest rates give rise to optimism? I can't get 'if only' out of my head from last September.:(

[incredible hulse]

The drop in the UK rate will only help if you're going the other way (although probably factored in already). I'd bet on it being closer to 2.55 than 2.75 next week

[whiskythedog]

942

above is 12 mth chart of uk sterling/nz dollar (bbc source)

pretty low at the moment but if the trend repeats watch out for feb 08 !

average rate over last 20 years is around 2.85 so if you get near or better than this then you have done well

happy new forex year !

greg

[Tia Maria]

Thanks Whisky - interesting graph.

We've only been here 2 years, a very short time as far as the financial markets are concerned, but in 2006 we saw the NZ/£ rate go between 2.5 and 3 and in 2007 we saw the rate go between 2.5 and 3.

We're hoping we will see the same improvement in 2008!

(I think in 2006 it had an increase after April, I remember as it was just after we'd bought our money over for the house and we spent months after walking around saying 'if only we'd bought it over 6 weeks later' :wah )

Cheers

Tia

[nickydwuk]

I'm hoping it follows the same trend as we will be looking to bring our money over in August. :D

[Pete & Sheila]

Is there any body out there who has some knowledge on what to expect in the coming months.
As the way the exchange rate are going at present things dont seem to be very rosie for those of us bringing our money from the UK to NZ.

[thezorbster]

Things aren't very rosy for those of us completing a house purchase and who had to exchange last night at 2.53 :wah :wah :wah

[buzztalks]

Of all the things to cope with, the exchange rate has been the worst. I think it's because it's totally beyond your control. You can only make the best decisions you can at the time, bearing in mind your aims, goals and taking into consideration your circumstances. Everyone's circumstances are different.

We decided to sign up for a move to NZ in Feb 2007. The rate was a steady 33/34p for a Kiwi dollar. Literally the next day, the dollar started to strenghten and eventually hit a 22 year high....just after we landed at the end of July. We'd sold up back home with the intention of bringing all our equity over once we arrived. I thought we might buy half of Wellington ( or even half of the North Island). Wrong again!

With such an unfavourable rate, we 've shifted our plans form buying to long term rental. Worst of it was,the dollar dropped like a stone around the end of August?? (refer to previous posting which includes the chart) for a very brief period of a day or so, before coming back strong again. I'm hoping it will do the same again, this time we'll be ready for it!!

[buzztalks]

wow! just checked the rate out of interest and it's topped 40p....

[willsken]

OK, anyone who understands what is happening to the $ - it's down to 2.44. Can this really get any worse?:no

[Sam B]

OMG - and there was me thinking of sitting it out until it got back to 2.9. Glad we exchanged at 2.7 now, and it seemed so awful at the time.

[Lupin]

But for those of us having to head back to the UK for a visit on NZ wages, this is Good News indeed :)

[Tia Maria]

It is pretty awful isn't it!

If you look here:

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/11/16/default.stm

You can see that many of the currencies are having a rocky time of it, apart from the Indian Rupee, its pretty much red all the way. :( (its 6pm - 19th Feb - NZ time - obviously the values will change for those that spot this post later!)

Sometimes I think its going to improve and then another piece of news from the USA comes out and it all goes wrong again.

Didn't someone exchange when it was at 2.2 a few years back? I wonder how long it was at that rate for?

Cheers

Tia

[willsken]

I still can't believe I sat with my finger on the exchange button a while back at 2.93 and didn't do it. Goodness knows how much longer I'm going to have to wait to bring my money over. :roll

[Sam B]

That's what's killing me too, I did exactly the same thing. 2.93! Argh!

[willsken]

What a greedy pair we are!!!! That will teach us.... not!:laugh

[Super_BQ]

The NZ currency will maintain it's strength for at least 2 or 3 years. Having the highest interest rates among the OECD, don't expect the rates to improve for those wanting to exchange foreign funds. Better wait until rates drop by half (4% or less) and unemployment levels goes sky high.

BQ

[Ojai]

As a holder of US dollars, I feel your pain here.

I think I may as well draw on some paper with crayon as use this crap I have in my wallet right now. I will be coming over with less and less as the weeks go by!

[James 1077]

I just had to transfer over a whole load of money at this horrible rate; it almost brought tears to my eyes! :(

That said I can't see the situation improving in the short term as with NZ interest rates where they are compared to the UK it makes sense to sell pounds and buy dollars; which is why the exchange rate is where it is.

With the UK looking like it may pop into recession, or slow down considerably, there probably won't be much call to raise interest rates in the UK and, in fact, they will probably go down. That will just make things worse unless NZ goes the same way.

The current inflationary pressure that is causing some talk about UK rates going up is mainly caused by increasing fuel prices making it more expensive to import and distribute goods; if the US and Europe economies slow down then fuel prices will come down and this inflationary pressure will be somewhat relieved!

Anyway - that is my take on the situation; no doubt I'll be entirely incorrect but there is always stuff that you don't know that will jump out of the closet and change things considerably (ie credit crunch in July).

[Super_BQ]

I think I may as well draw on some paper with crayon as use this crap I have in my wallet right now. I will be coming over with less and less as the weeks go by!


It may be in your best interest to exchange to another more favorable currency.

From a recent group appearance in Canada, investor guru Warren Buffet had the following to say,

"In the future, I would predict that the U.S. dollar will decline," Buffett, the world's second-richest man...

http://www.forbes.com/2008/02/07/buffett-dollar-economy-biz-cx_af_0207buffett.html?partner=yahootix

But, if we keep, if our current account deficit keeps running at present levels, the dollar, I think, is almost certain to be worth less five or ten years from now compared to other major currencies."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/23049626/site/14081545?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext% 7C&par=yahoo

BQ

[buzztalks]

Buffet's other words of wisdom -

"We won't know who has been swimming naked until the tide goes out"

excellent.....