[troutman]

Hi guys
Just a quick one, does anyone know of any statistics where one can calculate the likelyhood of being accepted - or rejected - once the ITA has been submitted and is showing 'pending'?
Best regards
Dave and Linda

[dusk]

not that I know of, but I'm obviousaly hoping it's on the high side ;)

[peebles16]

Tis a worrying time but think if you have submitted all the evidence required to support what was/is your EOI application you should be grand :D I think the pending just means that they are checking out what you've submitted so it's moving along :yes

Karen

[Pebbles]

Guess there is a fifty percent chance (as in everything): either you get it or you don't :yes

But seriously, this is not something where you want to rely on statistics. You will be accepted unless something damaging pops up in the process that you did not mention before.
Look for some distraction ... it is out of your hands now!

Will cross my fingers for you :nice1

[CJ22]

Guess there is a fifty percent chance (as in everything): either you get it or you don't

No, not really.

For the 2007/2008 financial year, 731 declined, 8474 approved. An approval rate of 91.4%.

More details on this data can be gleaned from the bi-weekly drawing report, which contains historical data. E.G. Factsheet for 23rd March (http://www.immigration.govt.nz/NR/rdonlyres/6F5694D0-A56A-40FF-A72D-DCF3DA35D032/0/FactSheet20080326.pdf)

[troutman]

For the 2007/2008 financial year, 731 declined, 8474 approved. An approval rate of 91.4%.

They be the figures I am interested in.
Thanks for that, and I am more than encouraged!
Regards
Dave and Linda

[CJ22]

Indeed. They're not looking for reasons to fail you.

[Pedro]

You can see the statistics here

http://www.immigration.govt.nz/migrant/general/generalinformation/statistics/


You can download the Excel files e change the filters. I think it's very interesting.

[Pebbles]

But it doesn't really say much about your particular chances if a certain percentage of people before you failed/succeded.
It is not the lottery, is it????

[CJ22]

The question wasn't 'what are the chances of my succeeding?', which wouldn't be a meaningful question, since it's not a matter of luck but of judgement. The question was 'what is the success rate?', which is over 90% as stated.

Saying it's 50/50 implies that you'd be as likely to fail as to succeed. Since those who fail are most likely to have failed because they were ineligible in some way (in which case they could never have passed), and those who succeed are those who are eligible, then assigning probabilities is meaningless. 100% of those eligible will succeed, assuming they don't withdraw.

In fact, I suspect the majority of failures are connected to the medicals - people having medical conditions that invalidate them. That's the only 'random' element, and it's an element unrelated to the immigration process itself. The only other ways to fail (assuming you didn't outright lie on the EOI) are to either withdraw your application or to fail to provide evidence of something for which you've claimed (which amounts to the same thing I suppose). NZIS are not looking for reasons to fail you at this point.

[sirmamac]

Thanks,CJ22!!!
Fantastically explained -puts my mind in rest!