[granger]

I was chatting to friends in Scotland and they were telling me they can't remember it ever feeling so gloomy as now. They say the newspapers and TV in the UK are full of gloom 24 hours a day. Maybe the TV news here is just as gloomy but I never watch it! Their house has been for sale for months with no sale in sight and their plans to emigrate are on hold. I know firms around Christchurch that were looking to hire new workers a few months back aren't recruiting any more. Between people finding it hard to sell up and finding it hard to get work in New Zealand I'm thinking there's going to be a big drop in immigration next year. Or is there part of the story I'm missing?

[JandL]

People will always want to move. The main reason stopping people I can see is that houses are not selling, so not many people are willing to drop most of their profit (their nest egg), and those that are still cant sell anyway! Those that really want to go are settling for renting out their house instead. I guess there to be less people moving during this time, but people still want to escape!

[doowrehsij]

I think that staying put to sit out the recession is only one of those reasons not to go, but totally agree that a lot of people considering emigration will do this and stay put.

However, I think you have the other half of people who think, 'it can't be as bad as this' and decide to cut their losses and go!

I read somewhere that more people emigrate when times are tough.... but it's a global recession, so who knows!

[rizjunior]

So does it mean there is going to be less flow of immigrants from Europe and americas compared to other continents? and if this happens, NZ would find it difficult to get the match of their criteria especially experience in comparable labour market.

Agree that recession is global, it even started hitting places like Dubai as well.

[Tobiwan]

The recession may be global, but the depth of the recession in a country will depend on how exposed they are to the US and UK markets (IMO). The whole world is tied to the US market to some extent and the UK has been stupid enough to follow them. I'm looking at a move to NZ as I don't think they are as exposed as we are in the UK - Does anyone have evidence to the contrary?

I feel that even when the UK does come out the other side, the government will be in such a dire need to recoup it's over-spending that taxes will inevitably rise. This will then result in the country taking even longer to sort itself out! Many people required to pay high taxes will then get out and revenues will fall. Sorry to be a doom-monger but I think it will be a long hard road for the UK.

I'm looking at a move to NZ but need a job offer in order to submit an EOI (not enough points otherwise), and I work in recruitment! I sent my CV to a firm in Wellington last night and they want a telephone interview on Sunday night, so it can't be all that bad over there???

[JandM]

Hello, Tobiwan, and welcome to the forum. :) Good luck with the interview.

[2371]

Good news for anybody with cash at hand is that the Kiwi Dollar is on a multi-year low and also property came nicely down. So it might be a good counter-cyclical move.

[doowrehsij]

Tobiwan - Yes, it's my opinion too that the UK is going to have a very tought time for years ahead.

From all of the resources I can read, NZ is by no means bullet proof to the economic downturn and the property market too is gaining momentum in its falls. There's mixed opinion out there and everyone wants a crystal ball!

[Sovenok]

Agree that recession is global, it even started hitting places like Dubai as well.
Yes it is global!
As for Russia, last month some companies fired a great deal of employees, some enterprises cut working week from 5 to 4 or even 3 days without loosing the staff. This is not a common practice, it's connected to the drop of consumption, but if demand falls the tendency will go on.

The recession will stop only when huge investors begin to trust in the stable business again. However, they don't.
Mankind should adjust to work in a new conditions, focusing on the local market, developing agriculture, inventing new sources of energy. For instance, petrol is about to deplete in 10 years. NZ might establish a production of new electrical cars and comete the world market.

[Sovenok]

Good news for anybody with cash at hand is that the Kiwi Dollar is on a multi-year low and also property came nicely down. So it might be a good counter-cyclical move.
Well, lower rate of NZD must attract investors :nice1
Recession is a time for losses and opportunities, NZ economy can develop like Japan did 20 years ago, of course it needs human resources, it's a great chance to become the #1 country. I believe in NZ, I believe in you, I believe in the future!!!

[johnrt]

Good news for anybody with cash at hand is that the Kiwi Dollar is on a multi-year low and also property came nicely down. So it might be a good counter-cyclical move.


You're right for most currencies but for people who want to exchange the British pound the Kiwi $ is pretty strong now. :wah

[Tobiwan]

That would be because the interest rate is better (if you're a saver) in NZ than many other countries.

[2371]

Main reason for the crash of the kiwi dollar has been the unwinding of the carry trades, i.e. speculators borrowed e.g. JPY at low rates and invested at high rates in NZD. Due to the current economic mess, these trades had to be closed.
So, good for anybody with the exception of the UK, where the housing bubble caused the biggest slowdown within Europe (except maybe places like Hungary)...

[Chaz]

Main reason for the crash of the kiwi dollar has been the unwinding of the carry trades, i.e. speculators borrowed e.g. JPY at low rates and invested at high rates in NZD. Due to the current economic mess, these trades had to be closed.
So, good for anybody with the exception of the UK, where the housing bubble caused the biggest slowdown within Europe (except maybe places like Hungary)... and probably Ireland.

[ant7jen]

If you think the housing bubble is bad, wait till the commercial property bubble pops! At this rate, there will be many office parks,and retail buildings with a FOR LEASE sign on them without any buisness to move in. Here in the US, I see many going out of buisness signs popping up all over.

Our retail business that come in third or second are failing and only the underdogs are fairing about avarage if at all. I wish I was a smart man and had some cash tucked away to move to NZ a long time ago.