[winka]

Well 3 months now until we move to NZ and our little pot of UK pounds seems be worth less and less each day!

Kick myself everyday that we didnt transfer a short while ago when it was 2.85!
Now I believe its under 2.50!:uhoh

Question now is....should we hold out for the rate to pick up or change now????

Wheres a crystal ball when you need one!

[doowrehsij]

I think it depends upon how quickly you need cash and how much.

From people I have spoken to and the analysis I have seen, the pound is being oversold at the moment, so it may regain some strength (but it will not be at all strong as it was).

Each currency in the world has taken a hammering; first the dollar, now the pound, I think the Euro will be next. I also think we will see a small recovery in the pound in Q1, Q2. The Bank of England is widely expect to follow America and cut rates to 1% or close to 0%, so once these moves happen we may see the drops in GBP stablise.

As far as I can make out, the NZD doesn't have any major strengths associated to it at the moment, so it makes it similar to the pound apart from high interest rates with BNZ. Also, there are mumerings that farming is vulnerable in NZ and that the government has been warned about the current account deficit and heard somewhere that Q2/Q3 were key dates for this.

I was fortunate enough to trade at 2.8 after the peak in November. There are a lot of wild fluctuations at the moment and the NZD is currently at 2.55. No one can quite call the trading range, however the lows forcasted is around 2.4 and the next high would be 2.65 going on to test 2.8 and upwards, meaning more emphasis on an upwards movement.

January is going to be an interesting month. Obama will get sworn in and the markets will trade with the year ahead in mind, rather than the Christmas shutdown. Personally, we are going to wait and see what happens, but I would be looking towards Q2/Q3 to make a decision on trading serious sums of money.

I'm not a trader or work in financial services... so this is just my opinion (as I only follow the financial world as a hobby!).

[Wooly_Cow]

I agree with doowrehsij, plus don't forget that the post Christmas period is a very low volume time so there will be a lot of movement.

In the medium term (Q2 2009) we can expect about $2.60-2.65. From there there may be a short term fluctuation towards $2.80 but the days of nearly $3 seem a long way off.

Most long term analysis suggests that the median rate would be around $2.75 so if it trades near or better than this you might consider trading.

In the meantime, if you have some capital, I am told the stock market might be a fair investment for SOME stocks, however again towards the middle of the year (July) another fall is forecast (God knows how anyone can say this but hey they've got it right in the past ....NOT).

There are a lot of shares out there with high P/E ratios, and dividend rates way above any rate you can get in the bank.

[IanR]

A very very difficult call.

The pro's say;

"UK – Scheduled event risk is significant for the pound, but not until Friday. On the other hand, it is important to look at the broader context in the fundamental drive behind this currency and economy. The United Kingdom is one of the view major nations that can rival the US for depressed forecasts in its growth and financial markets. The housing and consumer sectors in the UK is projected to see far worse times ahead of it thanks to the imbalance in the credit markets and the momentum behind one of the worst global recessions in decades. What’s more, interest rates (a primary gauge for expected returns from assets) still has considerable room to fall in the island nation – and fall they will. This provides the pound with a general bearish tone; but the economic docket will also have its influence later in the week. On Friday, the calendar fills out with credit, housing and manufacturing data that will be essential to discounting next week’s BoE rate decision."

[IanR]

So, any solutions?

I've used Ishares bond and corporate bond ETFs to give me

a. Higher interest rate yields and

b. Currency exposure to the Euro and USDollar.

So far it's worked but it's possible that the collapse in the £ has it's run its course to some degree. However corporate bonds themselves (SLXX, LQDE and IBCX) still offer pretty high yields and potentially a hefty capital appreciation. http://uk.ishares.com/index.do is where to look.

They also pay interest gross which is nice ;o) You do need a stock broking account but you can deal in them from any UK or NZ brokers.

Other options are just to trickle money over each month (£ cost averaging I believe they call it).

But maybe the best bet is just to spend it ... do you really trust politicians and bankers to look after it for you if the proverbial hits the fan?