dd311
18th May 2009, 10:50 PM
Latest long-term migration figures offer further encouragement for those who believe the housing market may start to get a lift by the end of the year.
Figures for March released by Statistics New Zealand today show a continuation of a recent trend for more Kiwis to stay at home, while the numbers of people coming to this country don't appear to be abating.
In March 6304 people left the country permanently, which was a 14 percent drop on the 7347 that set sail for other shores in the same month a year ago.
In the March quarter 20,951 people departed, compared with 23,209 for the same period last year.
Till recently growing numbers of people had been leaving, many for Australia. However, the sharp economic downturn appears to have prompted large numbers of people to decide to stay put.
But in the meantime, New Zealand still appears to have strong appeal for overseas migrants - despite or perhaps because of, the global turmoil.
In March 6617 immigrants arrived, up from 6338 in March 2008. In the quarter, there were 26,050 arrivals, up from 24,640 a year ago.
For the year to March 7482 more people arrived than departed, with was the largest 12 month gain in numbers since toward the end of 2007. The annual gain has been growing by the month since November, when there was a 12-month surplus of arrivals over departures of just 3569.
The latest figures give credence to predictions that for the whole of this year New Zealand could see a net gain of migrants of anywhere from 15,000 to 30,000. A figure of this magnitude could provide strong support for the housing market - as the need to house the extra people would both put a floor under the prices of existing houses and create impetus for construction of new housing.
The housing boom in the middle part of this decade was largely kicked off by a massive rise in inbound migration during the 2002-2003 period in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001.
Deutsche Bank chief economist Darren Gibbs said in light of the deep recession and job losses being experienced in most of New Zealand's key trading partners it was likely that net migrant inflows would continue to swing back heavily in New Zealand's favour.
"Over time, if history is any guide, strengthening migrant inflows will play an important role in reinforcing what is likely to be a strong recovery in housing activity - as unlikely as that may seem at present given the weak state of the domestic economy," he said.
UBS New Zealand senior economist Robin Clements said the net inward migration figures looked encouraging, with February and March together seeing the strongest two-month net inflow since mid-2003.
"This should add fundamental support for the already present early signs that the housing sector is bottoming out. An end to the housing drag on growth is an important component of a second half of the year stabilisation for the NZ economy," he said.
By DAVID HARGREAVES - BusinessDay
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NZ Immigration Packs - Your Gateway To New Zealand
Figures for March released by Statistics New Zealand today show a continuation of a recent trend for more Kiwis to stay at home, while the numbers of people coming to this country don't appear to be abating.
In March 6304 people left the country permanently, which was a 14 percent drop on the 7347 that set sail for other shores in the same month a year ago.
In the March quarter 20,951 people departed, compared with 23,209 for the same period last year.
Till recently growing numbers of people had been leaving, many for Australia. However, the sharp economic downturn appears to have prompted large numbers of people to decide to stay put.
But in the meantime, New Zealand still appears to have strong appeal for overseas migrants - despite or perhaps because of, the global turmoil.
In March 6617 immigrants arrived, up from 6338 in March 2008. In the quarter, there were 26,050 arrivals, up from 24,640 a year ago.
For the year to March 7482 more people arrived than departed, with was the largest 12 month gain in numbers since toward the end of 2007. The annual gain has been growing by the month since November, when there was a 12-month surplus of arrivals over departures of just 3569.
The latest figures give credence to predictions that for the whole of this year New Zealand could see a net gain of migrants of anywhere from 15,000 to 30,000. A figure of this magnitude could provide strong support for the housing market - as the need to house the extra people would both put a floor under the prices of existing houses and create impetus for construction of new housing.
The housing boom in the middle part of this decade was largely kicked off by a massive rise in inbound migration during the 2002-2003 period in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001.
Deutsche Bank chief economist Darren Gibbs said in light of the deep recession and job losses being experienced in most of New Zealand's key trading partners it was likely that net migrant inflows would continue to swing back heavily in New Zealand's favour.
"Over time, if history is any guide, strengthening migrant inflows will play an important role in reinforcing what is likely to be a strong recovery in housing activity - as unlikely as that may seem at present given the weak state of the domestic economy," he said.
UBS New Zealand senior economist Robin Clements said the net inward migration figures looked encouraging, with February and March together seeing the strongest two-month net inflow since mid-2003.
"This should add fundamental support for the already present early signs that the housing sector is bottoming out. An end to the housing drag on growth is an important component of a second half of the year stabilisation for the NZ economy," he said.
By DAVID HARGREAVES - BusinessDay
_________________________
Yours sincerely
NZ Immigration Packs - Your Gateway To New Zealand