[Jamie Smith]

Hi all

the latest pick was 100 points. Assuming no more family cases will be processed this year, the report shows that they have enough skilled applications on hand (5000 apps, 13000 people) to meet annual quota if all people get processed and approved.

Reality is 15%-20% will get declined so they need only pick about 1,000 more applications before end of June. :wah to replace the ones who get cut.

That is maybe one or two more dips at present levels. If they go to 50,000 total, that would be 5-6 more dips into the pool over 3 months. That sum adds up, but...

They would then have cleared out the old migration category for skilled people.

Result? They would then have an empty pool and not many cases to carry over from this year.

Would start 2005/2006 year off with a clobbering in the media. That might get some change in policy, as has been mooted in Parliament, but will mainly be adding back in IT from India and ironing out similar anomalies.

So I think NZIS will want to keep their political heads down especially as former head of the PM's Department is now in charge of immigration lkeading into an election year.

I expect NZIS to raise the points cut, fall just short of annual limit and proudly enter the new year with cases on hand.

Australia has just added 20,000 more seats to their programme for next year so NZIS will have its work cut out to get above 20,000 skilled applciants next year.

Cynical, aye, but that's how it appears to work.

[MB]

Thanks for this, Jamie. Sorry to make people scream by asking this one more time, but:
where if anywhere in the fortnightly tables does NZIS represent anyone who gets the 2-yr SMC WTR option? I'm curious anyway, although my puzzlement would be increased if I knew that NZIS are actually using this option in significant numbers rather than straight PR. (I've surmised here before that, although the forum population is near-saturated with straight PR as an outcome, the forum population might not be quite representative of all applicants.)

So where are any 2-yr folks in the tables? They don't seem to belong in 'Declines' or 'Approvals', in a sense. :?

Cheers,
Matt.

[MB]

One other thing:

given that NZIS skilled-migrant quotas have not changed that much in recent years, am I right in diagnosing that it is a combination of countries' competition for migrants and (closely related) the relatively v.good current economies in places NZIS normally get folks from (esp. the UK, perhaps) that are the very biggest reasons for the drop in applicants?

After all, although NZ may not recently have taken the "high road" of aggressively marketing their country's attractions, another thing that has remained constant is the "low road" set of attractions that people associate with NZ (low population, countryside, great people, etc.).
That is, I can see that in the light of my bold-italic factors above these attractions (or perceptions, if you like) are not particularly enticing to many folks in their 20s-30s right now... but the attractions are still there. NZ still has its good general reputation.

Cheers,
Matt.

[Jamie Smith]

Hi Matt

I'm sure your other factors apply also.

it's a strategic issue, given the other low road things you don't then want difficult policy or a system that is not easily understood and does not really appeal to agents who do most of the marketing.

[Jamie Smith]

Hi all

The reason for the notice of increase is that the NZIS have 8,000 of the old Skilled Migrant category, and adding this together with the ITAs issued means they will be about 15% over quota for the year ending June 30.

They are treating ITAs as a liability but they are only potential approvals, a "pending sale". No business I know legitimately accounts for profit where the sale has not been completed.

The issue is that about 15% of ITAs do not result in full applications.

If we back out the percentage for ITAs that do not become full applications, this leaves room for about 6,000 more applications, or about 800-850 ITAs for the next six picks until end of year - this is same volume as at present.

If this happens they will end up about exactly on quota and no therefore need to raise points.

It appears that NZIS is still driven by political necessity rather than economic need. Their form of accounting is based on potential liabilities rather than actual throughput.

I think they do not want to run the risk of going over quota in election year....

[Jamie Smith]

Well it looks like you'll all squeak in.

The latest EOI pick was still 100 points. There are around 1300 spaces left in the programme for the year ending June 2005, and two more picks.

They can carry on at 100 points for both picks, and go slightly over annual target but within maximum limits, alternative is to do next pick at 100 and last one for the year at 130 or so, a one-off points rise before resuming new year at 100.

I think they will be consistent as the backlog of EOIS that have not gone onto apply is not drawing down, so the actual PR quantity is within budget.

Phew! :clap

[nickchilli]

the nzis are working hand in hand with the lions supporters club to try to get some fans interested in staying permantley,

there are still hge skill shortages in the country,
sounds like a lot of RUMOURS

dont believe the hype, 3000 people leave nz for oz a month , they are even considering changing tax laws to get skilled workers back.

dont believe the hype