Any thoughts on the exchange rate at present?

incredible hulse

30th July 2009, 05:14 PM

That's the worst bit about it, isn't it. I think we get 0.6%? I wonder at what point we have to pay the bank to keep our money...

Daniela What like NZ you mean? :exit

In terms of the exchange rate - I'd be amazed if it fell much more but who knows. Bollard started making statements today about the wholesale rates still being too high but still no move on OCR. I can't see the OCR staying this high much longer and hopefully that will ease the exchange rate. I've just bought a load of sterling based on the hope that this is the bottom

frootbat

30th July 2009, 05:27 PM

That's the worst bit about it, isn't it. I think we get 0.6%? I wonder at what point we have to pay the bank to keep our money...

Daniela
We bunged some of ours in premium bonds - we've got something like a 36 million to one chance of winning a million of those lovely british pounds, then who cares what the exchange rate is! More exciting than earning 0.03% interest anyway...

PonyGirl

31st July 2009, 02:56 AM

72andsunny

31st July 2009, 03:58 AM

We are hoping for some kind of change in the exchange rate for USD vs NZD as we are coming over in October. But I really doubt that it will improve for us. I'm so bummed we missed out on the great exchange rate back in March, but oh well. We'll just see how it works out and hope for the best.

I was thinking the exact same thing. However, the Dow Jones was 6625 on March 6th of this year. 1 USD bought 1.99 NZD on the same date. Today, the Dow is 9144, and 1 USD gets you 1.53 kiwibucks. In case you don't feel like doing the math: in NZD, the Dow was 13,184 in March, and is 13,990 today.

I guess if you were holding a whole lot of cash in March, you would have been much better off buying NZ money then...but if you're invested in stock (or have a house to sell), things have not changed much in the last 6 months.

PonyGirl

31st July 2009, 07:56 AM

Yeah, unfortunately we didn't have the cash to exchange in March. We now have our house under contract and once we close we will have the money from the sale to bring with us. We'll see if anything changes, but I doubt it.

IanR

9th August 2009, 12:51 AM

The BoE's surprise decision this week to increase Quantitative Easing seems to have been taken by some in the markets as a sign that the UK, along with the USA possibly, is hoping to inflate it's way out of trouble.

I also wonder if the NZD$ is, to some degree, being dragged along by the strength of the Aussie$ ?

norma

9th August 2009, 11:05 AM

I'm having to leave it in the UK gaining no interest whilst suffering the misery of trying to find a half decent rental in Auckland

Now that you are not resident in the UK you are legally entitled to open offshore bank accounts in places like the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands, which are currently offering better rates of interest than most UK banks. The interest is also paid tax free.

Take a look at the offshore section of Moneyfacts web site www.moneyfacts.co.uk. My recommendation would be to select one based in the Isle of Man as they have an investor compensation scheme that is currently the same as the UK - £50,000 per investor per account.

You also don't have to declare this interest to NZ IRD if you qualify for the four-year tax exemption on foreign income for new residents (see http://www.ird.govt.nz/yoursituation-nonres/move-nz/temp-tax-empt-foreign-inc.html).

If you can, sitting tight with a half-decent interest rate is better than exchanging your UK pounds now. Even a small improvement in the exchange rate can make a big difference in the NZ$ amount you receive.

IanR

11th August 2009, 12:39 PM

Sterling tumbles sharply in an otherwise quite market on talk that UK would slump into a Japan-style "lost decade". There is speculation that BoE will use the Quarterly Inflation Report to be released this Wednesday to signal the risk of falling into a trap debt deflation and that was the main reason that the bank extended its asset purchase program last week. Former MPC member Wadhwani also said that US is tracking the path trodden by Japan in the 90s. He said that the bounces in three to four quarters of decent bounce would be seen but the bounces are driven by temporary factors only. He expects second half of 2010 would be even more difficult in UK.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/20090810/sterling-tumbles-otherwise-quiet-market.htm

I believe the UK is desperate to stop asset prices, especially house and commercial property prices, from falling. The UK banks, Building Socs and thus the whole economy is really hostage to the fortunes of the property market. A further 20% fall in UK house prices would apparently place some of the banks back into the desperate position they were in a few months ago.

IanR

20th August 2009, 08:57 AM

Bernard's view on the strength of the NZ Dollar (and the devaluation of the UK£ US$ etc.).
http://blogs.nzherald.co.nz/blog/show-me-money/2009/8/19/should-we-print-too/?c_id=3

doowrehsij

20th August 2009, 11:56 AM

Great Post Ian.

Tia Maria

20th August 2009, 01:59 PM

Bernard's view on the strength of the NZ Dollar (and the devaluation of the UK£ US$ etc.).
http://blogs.nzherald.co.nz/blog/show-me-money/2009/8/19/should-we-print-too/?c_id=3

Interesting article - thanks for the link.

Cheers

Tia

Farfields

20th August 2009, 07:55 PM

amatuer opinion here, but I'd be surprised if the £/$ rate fell much further. It very rarely goes below $2.50, so there are probably a great many traders/investors/banks etc with piles of money to move that will make it struggle to go much into the $2.40s.

I've going to send a few $$$s back to the UK tomorrow to take advantage. Why ponder over a few c's when it will probably move back to the 2.70s or better in a few months.

norma

21st August 2009, 10:53 PM

I've subscribed to Moneycorp's weekly e-newsletter on the NZD. It gives a good insight into the factors impacting the currency's movements. The latest issue can be accessed here but it's not for the faint-hearted (a rate of 2.16 is mentioned!):

http://zeta.ecommzone.com/LZ/TTTCUR/000ZTH/06453d69185fb2ebef626f252987398c67/home.htm

The newsletter is free and you don't have to be a Moneycorp client to subscribe. You can subscribe here:

http://www.moneycorp.com/Individuals/CFX-Personal/Weekly-Brief/

nickiware

22nd August 2009, 11:29 AM

Too scared to look, just got a quote of 2.40 OMG losing soo much

JandM

22nd August 2009, 11:49 AM

XE has 1.00 GBP = 2.41918 NZD right this minute.

Bobbysox

23rd August 2009, 09:20 AM

Try here for the current rate
http://www.xe.com/ucc/convert.cgi?Amount=1.00&From=GBP&To=NZD

whiskythedog

25th August 2009, 10:44 PM

2.3853 NZD/UKP what is going on ! - i think it is time to sell up and go back to uk (just kidding) -never been this low since arriving over 2 years ago

chocolate cake

25th August 2009, 10:53 PM

Worse still, it a low yesterday of $2.3808

frootbat

26th August 2009, 11:40 AM

We're hoping it bounces back to around 2.8 again by October, as that's when the in-laws are visiting and they're going to want to bring a little bit of spending money with them! Hope they don't panic and buy any in the next few weeks. International money markets please take note ;)

napiers

26th August 2009, 08:29 PM

Do many people make judgements on how favourable (or not) the exchange rate is based on what it was the first time they visited NZ or exchanged currency?

I ask out of curiosity because when I first visited NZ way back in 1995 when it was $2.4 to £1 and the following year $2.2 - so to me $2.4 was my original benchmark by which I judged any changes. My second visit was rubbish but then since then it's been pretty good whenever I've gone back or changed £ to $. I'm abit more mercenary now, (plus a bit older and wiser and have followed the rate more) and would be happier with benchmark of considerably more :D.

Wonderbob

26th August 2009, 08:39 PM

2.3750 just now and falling, where is it going to stop?

nickiware

26th August 2009, 08:52 PM

Back in 2005 we got 2.50 to the pound so I guess I use that, I always thought anything over that was a bonus. The current rate makes me want to cry at the moment. We complete our house sale on Friday and have a lot of equity to take over. Going to leave it for a while. Just bring enough to sort out car etc and living expenses for 3 months.

IanR

26th August 2009, 11:05 PM

FXTrader on CNBC this a.m. is calling the Aussie$ and Kiwi$ higher again this week ... £ getting hammered against Euro and will fall further if stock markets fall back (but what the correlation between £ and stock market is, I've no idea - just repeating comment).

Janey

27th August 2009, 06:01 PM

happy for it to go up but want a drop in Jan for when I return to the UK unlesss sell house first in which case will send money ahead!

doowrehsij

28th August 2009, 10:21 AM

2.36!!! EEek.. maybe that 2.16 rate could be a possibility :)

James 1077

28th August 2009, 01:36 PM

Wooly_Cow

28th August 2009, 02:38 PM

We've just told HiFX to set up a deal as soon as the rate hits 2.38! :wah

I can't believe we are going to have to transfer our house money over at such a bad rate but it is starting to affect OH's sleep with the stress over the rate so better have it in NZ than UK.

Hopefully it will hit 2.38 sometime in the next few days (it tends to go up and down throughout the day so the minute it hits it we'll be transferring the cash).

Unless you really need the cash, I would hang on. As others have said the thinking is that the NZ Gov. need to do something to reduce the value as the country is so dependant on exports and tourism.

Of course there is a risk it could go lower and so called experts have got it worng (frequently) in the past....but I've bet (with actual money not just words!) that it'll go back above $2.45

James 1077

28th August 2009, 05:14 PM

Unless you really need the cash, I would hang on. As others have said the thinking is that the NZ Gov. need to do something to reduce the value as the country is so dependant on exports and tourism.

Of course there is a risk it could go lower and so called experts have got it worng (frequently) in the past....but I've bet (with actual money not just words!) that it'll go back above $2.45

I agree that it will go back - however we need the cash by the end of next month and if it goes any lower we won't be able to afford the house we are buying!

russetoak

28th August 2009, 05:35 PM

I agree that it will go back - however we need the cash by the end of next month and if it goes any lower we won't be able to afford the house we are buying!

Hi there,

We are in exactly the same situation. We set HIFX at 2.38 as we soon won't be able to afford our house. Haven't had much sleep this week our stress levels are at an all time high. To scared to day to even look but will have a sneak peak in a bit.:wah
Good luck to you.:nice1

IanR

28th August 2009, 08:34 PM

The UK's superior experience in devaluing it's currency when a crisis occurs is now showing :(

I've just been listening to an FX commentator on UK CNBC and he was terribly negative on the UK£ . No mention of the NZ$ and I guess our best hope is that NZ takes some action to reduce the strength of the dollar. Otherwise I do wonder whether we're entering a new trading range for the of 2.20 - 2.50?

whiskythedog

28th August 2009, 09:24 PM

rate for UKP/NZD last 12 months per BBC website-
1st 6 months varied 2.5 - 2.9
next 5 months 2.6 - 2.5
now ?? falling off the cliff ..

1699

IanR

28th August 2009, 09:30 PM

We've just told HiFX to set up a deal as soon as the rate hits 2.38! :wah

No business of mine James but surely with this deal you've severely limited the upside of your 'bet' whilst leaving an unlimited downside on the table?

James 1077

28th August 2009, 11:55 PM

No business of mine James but surely with this deal you've severely limited the upside of your 'bet' whilst leaving an unlimited downside on the table?

Yes, but we are keeping an eye on the downside and don't want to miss the upside whilst we sleep (every time it moves up in the last few weeks has been at night here - and then it fell back down in the morning). At least this way the computers are working 24 hours for us!

doowrehsij

2nd September 2009, 11:06 PM

Yesterday's high.. 2.4 - that's it, the start of going all the way upto 3. LOL

James1077 - Hope you got a good deal on the transfer.

denalipop

12th September 2009, 09:23 AM

IanR

16th September 2009, 06:00 AM

The £'s looking pretty sick after the governor of the BoE was interviewed today - his comments (deliberately ?) knocked the £ further down and Bear Sterns were quoted on CNBC in forecasting another 7% fall by Xmas.

Holidays in Europe for us Poms in the UK are now looking increasingly too expensive.

whiskythedog

16th September 2009, 10:36 AM

wow 2.38 is looking like a good rate now - 2.335 OMG !

doowrehsij

16th September 2009, 04:09 PM

So what are you guys gonna do: move money now before it gets worse, or wait, hoping it will get better? Seems like a tough choice.

I'm definately going to wait... 2.33 is really bad and I'd rather wait rather. Even going upto 2.5 would make a fair bit of difference!

It seems like another big stock market bubble is happening.. so if it goes bang, it may bring down the NZD with it. But that's probably my wishful thinking! lol

wellywally

16th September 2009, 06:03 PM

This 5 year chart shows the volatility. It'll come back up, all you need is time :exit

1708

James 1077

16th September 2009, 06:46 PM

This 5 year chart shows the volatility. It'll come back up, all you need is time :exit

1708

Unfortunately the Governor of the Bank of England is spending lots of time talking down the currency - he recently implied that quantitative easing isn't working by saying that they were looking at other possibilities (ie zero or negative interest rates).

Personally I think that it will take some time, and a change in government, before the pound strengthens significantly. The NZ dollar may, however, weaken to bring the rates back into historical norms!

Kea

16th September 2009, 06:52 PM

I'm not sure if I understand this- but does a strong dollar cause problems for kiwi exporters? And if it does, does NZ export or import more?

Wooly_Cow

16th September 2009, 07:55 PM

I'm not sure if I understand this- but does a strong dollar cause problems for kiwi exporters? And if it does, does NZ export or import more?

As a general rule the revenue from exports did not pay for all the imports of goods and services plus the interest and profit payments to foreigners. That means most years New Zealand had a current account deficit. This deficit represents foreigners’ investment in New Zealand.

Recently one of pruchases of aircraft have swung to being slight net importers. The price of certain commodities are in US$ so this rate is important.

Two major industries, agriculture (especially diary) and tourism are very sensitive to a strong Kiwi dollar. If these start being impacted negatively.....

Australia is now the largest export market (with over a fifth of exports in 2004), followed by the United States (with over a seventh), then Japan and China. In only fifth place came the United Kingdom (with under a 20th of exports), which still imported meat and dairy products. Of course if we look at markets rather than countries, the European Union was New Zealand’s second largest single market. The Asian region takes about a third of all New Zealand exports.

nifta

16th September 2009, 10:35 PM

yeah, king's comments must've been deliberate...!? there've been murmurings about weakening the pound to aid exports in order to help kickstart the economy. the thing is that the markets in the UK currently seem to be a lot more positive about things than the BoE.. i'm not sure if it's just a false dawn or that things are really improving. (i just follow the news, so i'm sure others have a much better idea of what's happening!)

but hasn't there been talk from English etc about how the NZD needs to weaken? whenever the pound has strengthened against the USD, NZD has also strengthened, so GBPNZD either stays stagnant or falls... is what we're really looking for a drop in NZD rather than an improvement in sterling?

i think we're resigning ourselves the fact that we're going to have to wait.. perhaps for a year or more :(

Wonderbob

16th September 2009, 11:12 PM

Wow 2.31 just now, surely the pound can't go any lower???

Mamee & Co

16th September 2009, 11:15 PM

:no Just saw that too :wah ...maybe having to wait on the MA, then the need to sell the house etc. will stand us in good stead, and by the time we are ready there will be a rebound.

chocolate cake

16th September 2009, 11:30 PM

Wow 2.31 just now, surely the pound can't go any lower???

Who knows, well I thought $2.40 would be a low, and that was 12 year low, but it's been consistantly below that for a month now and the trend don't look. Even $2.50 seems dream land at the moment:mad:

Toonster

16th September 2009, 11:42 PM

:wah:wah
I'm starting to get really scared about this - we don't have a huge amount of money to bring out with us anyway, and I can't believe how fast the exchange rate is dropping. It looks like we are going to have to bring it out piecemeal as and when we need it (i.e. take enough to cover our first couple of months and hope the rate improves over Christmas :-( )

kara_m

17th September 2009, 01:25 AM

at this rate we will be staying with the inlaws a lot longer than planned!

Kitten Witten

17th September 2009, 04:49 AM

at this rate we will be staying with the inlaws a lot longer than planned!

Us too! Oh well, what can you do? :laugh I guess or you'll :wah

Marsh

17th September 2009, 10:28 AM

My broker sent me an email please see below and draw your own conclusions.....

Dear NZD Buyer
Failure to break back above 2.35 adds to the case that we are going to see new 16 year lows - the market has now broken below 2.33 and there were only negative comments from Bank of England Governor Mervyn King about the UK economy for the next 2 years.
He talked about very low interest rates for the next 2 years, and continuing the asset purchase program (Q.E.)
Key support comes in at 2.25 and then 2.1700
The only hope now is for a stock market crash to unwind the strength in NZD - will it happen?
If you have any requirment coming up it may be sensible to buy some of your requirment sooner rather than later with the potential to buy more if stock markets unwind.
Best Regards

norma

17th September 2009, 01:55 PM

The sentiment is similar in this week's currency update from Moneycorp:

http://www.moneycorp.com/headline_mail/NZD_MC.html

Clappy

17th September 2009, 06:14 PM

Do many people make judgements on how favourable (or not) the exchange rate is based on what it was the first time they visited NZ or exchanged currency?I do.

My first visit to New Zealand was in 2001 when we were getting about 1GBP = 3.4NZD.

Everything seemed so cheap - those were the days!

It was disconcerting walking around shops in London last year with my Kiwi mother-in-law while she kept commenting about how the prices seemed to be so low. :eek:

I don't expect the pound to gain much strength before the second half of next year when there will be a change of government, but even then I would not be surprised if the rate gets worse before it gets better.

On the otherhand there is always a possibility that a credit ratings downgrade of New Zealand could see the carry-trade money decamp to Australia resulting in the New Zealand Dollar losing much of its strength.

There would be a knock-on affect for people with mortgages though so the question really is "How would you like your pain?". ;)

Of course, if I knew what I was talking about I would make a living from this. I don't so you should treat my comments accordingly. :)

James 1077

17th September 2009, 06:48 PM

Of course, if I knew what I was talking about I would make a living from this. I don't so you should treat my comments accordingly. :)

To be honest I normally treat the comments of the people making a living out of it in the same way too! :D

Nemo

18th September 2009, 06:57 PM

The exchange rate is painful right now. I envy those people who were making the move back in March/April!

So what are you guys gonna do: move money now before it gets worse, or wait, hoping it will get better? Seems like a tough choice.

We moved last year and spent a fair bit of money settling in at a time when the GPBNZD was typically around the 2.6 - 2.8 mark, so we shouldn't complain. Except moving isn' t the the biggie, buying a house is. How hard am I kicking myself for not buying up all those lovely cheap dollars when i had the chance? Back then of course the received wisdom was that the NZD could crash, and at one point it nearly did. It's not easy, this forex malarky.

I've been hanging on waiting for an upward change and you know what? I don't think there's going to be one. The pound is simply worth a lot less than it was before all that devaluation, and we're finally getting to appreciate that fact. Devalued = "worth less" (not being sarky, just stating the obvious) and with more QE to come..?

2.30 might seem like dizzy heights by xmas...

Mick

RJLink

18th September 2009, 07:45 PM

The same situation is going on with the USD/NZD. I can't imagine the NZD going significantly lower anytime soon, and if I had to bet (which I basically have to) we'll see the insane summer '08 rates (NZD buying 80 US cents) again by Christmas. The question is, will it get any more extreme than that? I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility.

JandM

18th September 2009, 11:48 PM

nifta

19th September 2009, 12:33 AM

"No RB intervention expected over Kiwi's rise"
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/personal-finance/2876569/No-RB-intervention-expected-over-Kiwis-rise

i'm not sure how extreme things have to get for them to step in, but doesn't look like it'll happen any time soon.

YouMeAndThree

19th September 2009, 02:02 AM

The only potential (very personal) bright spot in all this is that my NZ family are hoping to come on a visit to the UK after Christmas, so conditions as they are would suit a trip that way round very well.

If we get the (hoped for) payout from the IRD we are planning to send it back to the UK..........based on the luck we have with exchanging the rate won't be low then :(, much like when we transfer from the UK to NZ

Wonderbob

19th September 2009, 10:19 AM

OMG, it's hit 2.29 overnight!

YouMeAndThree

19th September 2009, 10:34 AM

OMG, it's hit 2.29 overnight!
:no It's now making my 2.34 exchange this week look pretty good.

Mamee & Co

19th September 2009, 10:30 PM

Think that I'll just stop looking until I have funds to exchange.

Super_BQ

20th September 2009, 12:02 AM

I'm not surprised at all about the recent swing in exchange rates. There's basically on a few economic indicators to look at which have the biggest impact on currency rates. Interest rates are a huge factor - When NZ was paying over 9% at the bank for term deposits, it created a HUGE flurry of foreign investors pooling all the $ in NZ - that was during the time where NZ experienced the highest exchange rate against the USD in all time. If you look at both the British pound and USD, the interest paid for holding those currencies is at near 0% while today, the NZD still pays decent %.

The 2nd factor is more tied to fiscal policy. In the case with the US, their out of control spending by borrowing paints a dim picture of the strength in the $. In the case with UK, their lack of diversification present one of the biggest cause in the weakening of the pound. I recall almost 1/3 of the UK industry is tied to financials so it's no surprise their currency is tanking hard.

I know many farmers (those tied to exporting) disagree but a strong NZ currency will IMPROVE the standard of living in NZ. What you hear about farmers crying because of the strong NZ currency should have no bearing for the rest of the population - really, at the macro-economic level, the majority of Kiwis will benefit more with a stronger currency than a weaker one. Consumption of overseas goods will become more affordable (I don't recall NZ as a nation to produce the best of everything - hence why the Made in NZ marketing ads we've seen on TV has failed). Go look at other nations that sell milk and cattle products. The milk and butter we buy in NZ is NO CHEAPER than abroad which means, if even the dairy industry were to collapse in NZ, we would still be able to source abroad at competitive prices. The issue here is do we create a country of self reliant sufficiency or a country with transnational ties through trade?

This was the key problem where exchange rates were tied to the gold standard - the lack of trade killed those nations while the ones that accepted the Bretton Woods Agreement for free floating exchange rates benefited immensely through trade, and thus higher standard of living.

BQ

nickiware

21st September 2009, 08:18 PM

Ozforex is at 2.27!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

wellywally

22nd September 2009, 04:42 PM

news on the national current account deficit caused a sharp 1% ish strengthening of the NZD against the USD and GBP today.

Perhaps a good time to send money out of NZ to the UK if the broker's comment (see earlier posting in this thread) about support at 2.25 is correct?

Hackswell

22nd September 2009, 05:03 PM

This 5 year chart shows the volatility. It'll come back up, all you need is time :exit

1708

That chart shows a bearish breakout below support of 2.42. That's a pretty straight line horizontally. Then there's the decreasing slope from 3.05 to 2.82. Eventually they would meet at 2.42 anyway. It just broke out below the support level of 2.42. So it is likely to NOT go above that any time soon. There is a new bearish trend.

However, that means the Kiwis aren't messing up the value of their currency like the UK and USA are. It's not that the kiwi is getting stronger. It's that the pound sterling, euro, and dollar are falling due to inflation.

IanR

22nd September 2009, 05:44 PM

The BoE quarterly report gave Stirling yet another kicking yesterday ..... It's quite obvious that they are deliberately devaluing the 'Great British Pound' as fast and hard as they can.

"....In its quarterly bulletin, the Bank of England noted that the UK had run current account deficits for more than a decade - sustainable as long as the deficit was offset by foreign investors' purchases of UK financial assets.

"But the financial crisis may have led overseas investors to reassess their willingness or ability to purchase sterling assets and thereby finance the UK trade deficit," the Bank of England said.

"As a result, the long-run sustainable real sterling exchange rate... may have fallen."

There's also talk of them aiming for parity to the Euro again !!

Wooly_Cow

22nd September 2009, 05:55 PM

It's quite obvious that they are deliberately devaluing the 'Great British Pound' as fast and hard as they can.

Yup that seems to be the plan. If memory serves after the reccession in the early 90's it's what they did too. Make turn the UK into the sweatshop of Europe. It worked then as there was massive inwards invesment by for example Japanese car makers. I am guessing this time it will be the Chinese.

...but the Kiwi dollar is also strong. It seems the RB want to try the reverse i.e. keep a strong currency to encourage consumer spending on imports....hmmm not sure that'll work long term but short term it'll mean better price for higher quality imported goods which would make a change.

whiskythedog

22nd September 2009, 07:33 PM

2.2641 NZ/UKP 5.30pm NZ time
wow if i convert my NZ salary into UKP i am finally on a decent wage !
Its almost worth selling up,renting and sending the money back to the UK
waiting for the inevitable (?) rise and bringing it back to rebuy a house (assuming no siginficant price rises)
hmm lots of variables
Almost ... maybe when it reaches 2.0000

chocolate cake

23rd September 2009, 12:06 AM

That chart shows a bearish breakout below support of 2.42. That's a pretty straight line horizontally. Then there's the decreasing slope from 3.05 to 2.82. Eventually they would meet at 2.42 anyway. It just broke out below the support level of 2.42. So it is likely to NOT go above that any time soon. There is a new bearish trend.

However, that means the Kiwis aren't messing up the value of their currency like the UK and USA are. It's not that the kiwi is getting stronger. It's that the pound sterling, euro, and dollar are falling due to inflation.

Mmm bearish breakouts eh! Regarding pound, euro and US dollar falling due to inflation, I guess it's it's trends that are important:-
US inflation is -1.48% [http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/historicalinflation.aspx]
UK 1.6% [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8256181.stm ]and
NZ higher at 1.9% [http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/historicalinflation.aspx]

No doubt bank base rates are important, NZ's has always been higher but the US and UK hovering above 0% must run the risk of long term low interest rates like Japan in the 90's.