[Dinnaefash]

How weird is this? I've been keeping an eye on Realenz at properties, :oops: and there is one in Taumarunui that I'm hoping will still be on the market by the time we get there so we can take a look. It's been on the market for a few months, at $510k (it's got 40 acres). I looked a couple of days ago, and the price is now $700k!! Eh?? :? :eek

[GeorgeM]

On the radio news this morning it said that despite talk of the housing market slowing down, median property prices in Chch had increased by more than 15% over the last 12 months.

The highest movers were the eastern suburbs with over 18%, the lowest the Port Hills suburbs with 14.5% (which suggests a reasonably uniform growth rate).

Perhaps the increase that you've noticed is a reassesment based on a revised take on market conditions (although if the thing wasn't sold at $510K you would expect it to be more difficult to shift at $700K, wouldn't you).

[Wannaway]

I see a lot of these reports that say "median house prices to such and such a point in time increased by X%", but when you see the relative movement from one month to the next you do see house price growth is in fact beginning to slow - it won't come to a juddering halt in one month, but a gradual slowing as we are seeing now. Also median house prices can be very misleading, a couple of months back the median house price for Auckland went up, and all the real estate people leapt on this as "proof" about the bouyancy of the market. Actually it was because of a disproportionately high amount of sales completed at the top end that increased the average.

There are so many properties here in Auckland that have been on the market for so long, quite a few have been on since we first arrived back in November of last year. Anecdotally everyone seems to be saying things are slowing down, I think it will take time for the actual effect to be felt. Just look at what has happened in the UK over the last 18 months.

Doesn't explain why a property should leap from $510k to $700k though, maybe they have discovered an oil field in their back yard!

[GeorgeM]

The number of properties in the mix skews the figures also.

They seem to be statistics mad over here which means that, for example, in Chch you get monthly breakdowns of the median house sale price almost by suburb. The number of sales in each category is also shown - it is normally less than 100 and sometimes less than 20! Obviously in such instances a couple of houses going through very high or very low will be reported as 'proof' that the market is either dying or booming.

[Kim39]

Just pulled this from the NZ Herald

House-price increases average 13pc





13.06.05


By Nicola Boyes


House prices continue to soar, particularly in the provinces, according to figures released yesterday.

Residential property values rose 13.5 per cent in the year to the end of May, the Crown's property information firm, Quotable Value, has found.

The Quotable Value survey measures property value growth by comparing the sales price of a property with its capital value.

Of the main centres, Dunedin posted the biggest annual growth, with prices rising 22.9 per cent.

Second was in Hamilton, up 21.2 per cent, followed by Christchurch on 18.5 per cent. Single-digit rises were posted in Auckland (5.8 per cent) and Wellington (8.2).

Provincial cities recorded stronger growth, with property values up 33.4 per cent in New Plymouth, 29 in Gisborne, 21.3 in Hastings, and 18.1 in Palmerston North.

QV spokesman Blue Hancock said that, although provincial centres were initially slow to follow the property cycle, they had recently been outpacing the main cities.

He expected growth to slow over winter, which tended to be a quieter time for the property market. "However the current range of competitive fixed-term interest rates may keep the market active for a while yet."

Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard kept the official cash rate at 6.75 per cent last Thursday, but did not rule out future rate rises.

Later that day, Kiwibank cut its two-year fixed interest mortgage rate from 7.5 to 7.35 per cent, and National Bank cut its two-year rate from 7.8 to 7.65 per cent.

Real Estate Institute president Howard Morley said the figures were in line with April data released by the institute.

"With high levels of employment, the real estate market is quite firm. Interest rates aren't moving.

"The figures show that all round, it has been performing pretty well."

Mr Morley said real estate agents were reporting they were still short of listings and there were a lot of buyers in the marketplace.

People had been waiting four years for the market to drop off, he said, but it was "very steady".

[Moorf]

The property section of The Press (Christchurch) today carried the headline "Housing Market Sets New Record" ... "Christchurch's property prices hit a high in May with those in the city's hill and seaside suburbs passing the half million dollar mark."

So the downturn in prices hasn't happened just yet, thank goodness, and hopefully with Spring / Summer on the horizon we'll see some growth. *fingers crossed*

[Timbo]

Housing market cooling in Auckland


Auckland city house prices drop nearly 5% over past four months, but nationally still rising



18 July 2005

The latest figures for Auckland city, suggest the housing market may finally be coming off the boil.

North Shore, Manukau and Papakura are still strong markets, but the regional average was pulled down by falling sales figures in Auckland city and Waitakere.

Real Estate Institute figures show house prices in Auckland city have dropped by nearly five percent over the past four months. The median price for the city peaked in March at $435,000 but has dropped $20,000.

Average prices for the Auckland region as a whole have also dropped $5,500 in the last four months and the number of houses sold is lower.

However, the national median house price continues to rise and was $284,500 last month.

[Kim39]

What, with the dollar now beginning to rise, seems like its a good combination :clap

Kim

[Timbo]

Housing market slowing, another surge unlikely


08.08.05


By Brian Fallow


The housing market has returned to the less hectic conditions that prevailed before a spike in demand late last year and early this year, ASB Bank says in its quarterly report on the market.

"The market may be slowing but it remains quite active," said ASB chief economist Anthony Byett.

"You can't dismiss the possibility of another surge in demand, if the perception gets around that interest rates have peaked and something causes lower fixed rates among the banks."

But the more likely outlook is for a slowing housing market over the next couple of years, he said.

"I know that slower housing activity was generally expected this time last year and that forecast proved incorrect. But the same factors are still there and they will eventually tell."

House prices have risen a startling 74 per cent since the latest boom began in mid-2001.

It has outstripped the 55 per cent rise in the previous upturn (between mid-1992 and the end of 1997) and is equivalent to a 59 per cent rise in real terms.

The real price rise over the past four years is greater than in the three previous housing upturns.

Other indicators of affordability are also stretched: household debt is nearly 1.5 times disposable incomes and the cost of servicing that debt at current interest rates is biting more from incomes. Nevertheless, house prices and household debt continue to rise apace.

Provisional figures from Quotable Value NZ show house prices rose 14.3 per cent nationwide in the July year.

Byett said house prices rose by nearly 3 per cent in the June quarter, down from the 5.3 per cent pace recorded in the March quarter, but in line with the average 2.9 per cent per quarter recorded in 2004.

ASB's survey found on balance people consider the housing market to be a seller's market.

Twenty-five per cent of respondents consider it a good time to buy but 28 per cent a bad time.

The net 3 per cent considering it a bad time to buy is slightly above the net 5 per cent average of the past two years.

A net 20 per cent of respondents expect house prices to rise over the next 12 months, down from a net 28 per cent in the previous quarter but up from a net 2 per cent this time last year.

In contrast to the financial markets (which expect the next move in interest rates to be down, but not until early next year), a net 46 per cent of respondents expect interest rates to rise over the next 12 months.

Byett does not expect a repeat of the 40 per cent fall in house prices that followed a steep rise in the early 1970s, which took place in an environment of very high general inflation and a sharp fall in the terms of trade.

Any decline should be softened by rising wages, a more stimulatory fiscal policy and improved export returns from a lower dollar.

"The more likely scenario is one in which the average house price stops increasing. A modest average decline is possible - the Reserve Bank suggests 10 per cent - but a large part of any adjustment is likely to involve slower sales, with sellers holding out for a high price."

[Singel]

House prices hit fresh high

19.09.05 1.00pm


The property market continued to bubble along in August, with the nation's median selling price hitting a fresh high, according to figures out today from the Real Estate Institute (REINZ).

After falling to $280,000 in July, the median selling price hit a new national record of $290,000 in August. This compared to $248,000 the same time last year.

The number of house sales also increased in August, to 8537, from 8213 in July.

REINZ's national president Howard Morley said sales of higher priced properties had driven the market.

Sales volumes of houses worth less than $400,000 were relatively flat at 6363 in August, compared with 6312 in July.

By contrast, house sales in the $400,000 to $599,000 price band increased from 1311 in July to 1506 in August, and sales in the $600,000 to $999,999 rose from 464 to 520. Million dollar-plus house sales increased from 127 to 148.

Of the 12 regions, seven recorded a rise in median prices in August compared to July, one was unchanged and four fell.

The median sales price in the Auckland region rose $11,500 on July, from $363,500 to $375,000. But while prices were up, sales volumes fell, from 2960 in July to 2933 in August.

Wellington's median sales price jumped from $295,250 in July to $308,100 in August. Sales volumes were up from 860 in July to 886.

In the Waikato/Bay of Plenty/Gisborne region median sales prices hit $263,000, from $247,500 in August. Northland's median house price rose to $250,000 from $235,000. In the Hawke's Bay the median sales price rose to $253,750 from $250,000.

The median price in Manawatu/Wanganui hit a new high of $173,000 in August, up from $169,500 in July.

Canterbury/Westland's median price reached $260,000, from $250,000 the previous month.

Taranaki's median price was unchanged at $216,000.

On the downside, Nelson/Marlborough fell to $270,000 from $273,000, Central Otago Lakes eased to $345,000 from $350,000, Otago fell to $193,000 from $201,000 and Southland eased to $136,000 from $138,500.

[Dinnaefash]

Just an update... we went to see the property that started this thread - what a dump! It's still on the market now! Sounded great on paper - 4 bed, pool, spa, rumpus room, views, 40 acres - but it was really run down, dirty, very dated. How they thought they could put the price UP is beyond me. Hey ho, at least I can knock that one off my list!

[Moorf]

We bought this place for $305k in April and it would now be marketed at $355k - we have it at $345k because a) we'd have been happy with $325k and b) we want to sell quick.

And I've been looking at property over the last few months, the prices around Chch (seasides, hills and furthermost suburbs) do seem to be rising steadily with the innner areas not having moved much.
Half hour out of Chch and the prices are still really reasonable (Rangiora/Kaiapoi/Halswell etc) but rising fast.

I wouldn't want to be lumbered with a big mortgage at the moment though, what with interest rates rising (although mortgage rates remain same for time being) and another rise on the horizon. :uhoh

[adamsat]

Just to show how much prices are still going up around Christchurch here's a place someone in work has just put on the market

http://www.realenz.co.nz

Listing number - 108145

check out the rates as well - scary!