New Zealand - exchange rate

clg

18th November 2005, 04:22 AM

The pound is falling against most currencies right now on news interest rates will be flat at best or decline so not so good for people from the UK. The NZ government really is trying to get the kiwi down relative to the US$ so I am hoping the rate will get better still. They are looking for around .60 US to the NZ$ does not mean it will happen but as long as US econ info is good and things are leveling off here in NZ the rate for US at least should improve.

tigerlily

18th November 2005, 09:17 AM

I think if they raise US interest rates that should also help out CLG. I'd be thrilled with a .60 rate before we move next fall. Yes, I'm on the slow boat.

jubjub

25th November 2005, 08:34 AM

Its now 2.47, lowest I have seen it (typical we need some of our UK money at the mo!)

kiwidebs

25th November 2005, 07:18 PM

We've been watching it too. Arghhhh!! Is about all I can say. Unless it improves dramatically over the next three months we will be bringing very little £££ with us!

Debs

jess

29th November 2005, 07:09 AM

Hi Tigerlilly. If it helps, you can check the history of the exchange rate from as far back as 2000 to now in a quick chart at
http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory

Jessica

David with a dream

29th November 2005, 08:03 AM

Sorry to say it's just hit $2.45 :no . Was told a short while ago by two financial people they would not bring GBP into NZ for another 18 months or so!
Well our reccy trip is about that time so they better be on the ball. David

tigerlily

29th November 2005, 10:20 AM

Thanks Jess! That was a great chart, and perhaps more depressing than I even realized. It's trading near it's 5 year low. Ugh.

jess

30th November 2005, 04:16 AM

Tigerlily,

Yes, it is depressing! We're moving in April, but after we sell our house here, I think we'll have to leave the proceeds in US dollars and rent until the rate is good for an exchange to NZD.

Bloomeberg keeps saying Sell the NZD it's going to drop, and Finance Minister Cullen says it's overvalued and will drop like a stone at some point. Of course the question is when... But if you're moving next fall, there's a good chance it could be a better exchange for you then.

Jessica

jo b

22nd February 2006, 06:52 AM

Looks like the NZ dollar is finally weakening as per many economic predictions.

today £1 = $2.63

Jo

Moorf

22nd February 2006, 09:54 AM

At last..... :clap

westies

22nd February 2006, 08:55 PM

smitjo

22nd February 2006, 09:02 PM

That is really great news!!
Lets hope it gets a little better - we fly out in Oct!

Jo

jo b

23rd February 2006, 07:07 AM

If you look at the currency website sites

hifx.com, xe.com etc, they show currency history and looking at the dollar looks like if goes in cycles and economic predictions are that it will fall mid winterish. If it keeps falling, which it needs to do as the stronger dollar is having an effect on farming exports, it sould fall to around $3 to the pound. That is 25% increase, when you're changing lots of money that is a lot of dollars to loose.
Another way to do it is get a mortgage over here then transfer when the exchange rate is favourable. BUT it all depends on how much you have to exchange and whether it would be worth it for you. You could change half and sit on half, again it depends on how much.

Jo

Moorf

23rd February 2006, 07:11 AM

Or you could do what we did and open a sterling account here and keep some of the money in ££'s and change it when you need it.

Rabbit

23rd February 2006, 09:30 AM

Hi
We have been quoted $2.62-£1 by ASB to transfer our funds, unsure whether this is good, it sounds ok on recent history, but will it go up any more. Our dilemma is we want to buy a property asap, rather than rent, what does everybody else feel????

Property is a long term investment, a bit like the stock market, up and down, though mostly up for the last twenty years.

If you find somewhere you love, and can get the benefit of it - then go for it now.

The price may go down or up, but in the very long term it will go up.

You only have a loss when you try to realise your gain (e.g. sell) If that is a long way off then I would not worry about the temporary fluctuations of the next few months.

OK the Dollar is falling, but alas property prices are still rising so it is swings and round abouts.

The sell time for a NZ property is 30+ days, in the UK it is probably 7 months, given current prices, so the NZ market still has plenty of room.

So if you plan to stay there for at least four years then I would go for it now.

You could consider delaying transfering funds for another week or two? - but it is allways a gamble.

Perhaps consider getting a flexible mortgage (if you need one) so that you can switch into future lower rates.

The commentators say it will be a long slow decline (soft landing), and before then who knows the government may do something to create a stimulus (other than increasing interest rates).

Interesting curve at the moment:

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/11/16/default.stm

Though if people could predict the future then they would be mighty rich - and nobody can do that, so it is all a gamble.

Moorf

8th March 2006, 01:26 PM

Yay $2.67 = £1

Marie P

8th March 2006, 01:34 PM

We are going to move our money next week ,just waiting for the end of our 30 day period [its in a 30 day account ] ,hope it stays up or goes even higher... :exit

Moorf

8th March 2006, 02:46 PM

Higher, higher!!

Woz should start on his UK contract next month, being paid in ££'s so 3 to 1 would be nice to see again - each time it rises we get a pay rise :D (and yes, we've capped it so won't suffer if it goes below 2.6!)...

Avalon

8th March 2006, 02:53 PM

We just got confirmation that 2 of our pension cheques are on the way - so Im a happy bunny :)

Though it may be a sad reflection that im happy with a rate of less than 2.7 :laugh

Avalon

8th March 2006, 02:55 PM

(and yes, we've capped it so won't suffer if it goes below 2.6!)...

Out of interest - how does this work - can you do this for bringing over a sum each month - rather than in big chunks?

Moorf

8th March 2006, 03:07 PM

Our situation may be a little different. We've secured a big contract over 3 yrs and we're paying ourselves a salary out of that (company owned by ourselves and my brother). As it's our own company we've written it into the contract that we will maintain a 2.6 exchange rate as the min or the actual rate if higher - not sure how'd you'd negotiate it with an employer but obviously it was simple for us!!?

Avalon

8th March 2006, 04:57 PM

Yep -ok - cant really use that!

However - well done on the contract!

Moorf

8th March 2006, 05:05 PM

Thanks Avalon, it's been a year in the negotiating and it's a household name company so we're very pleased :) it's been a very stressful couple of weeks - my brother flies out to USA to sign next Wednesday - surely nothing can go wrong now.... :uhoh

willsken

9th March 2006, 10:03 PM

I hope the rate keeps improving. Back to 3.40, I think my Mum remembers it when she went there on holiday....many years ago! :)

katandbob

10th March 2006, 12:19 AM

nah its at this as far as our work email update received today.....(but heres hoping!)
Rates as of 2006.03.08 21:09:29 UTC (GMT). Base currency is GBP.

Currency Unit GBP per Unit Units per GBP
NZD New Zealand Dollars 0.3747242641 2.6686288983

baboonworld

10th March 2006, 06:26 AM

just starting down this path - can u tell me about how you transfer pensions from Uk to NZ (and is it always a chq or sometimes do you have to transfer into a pension??)

ta!

jess

10th March 2006, 07:34 AM

Hi baboonworld, try these threads:

http://www.emigratenz.org/forum/showthread.php?t=4125

http://www.emigratenz.org/forum/showthread.php?t=2441

J

Avalon

10th March 2006, 09:25 AM

Baboonworld -

Ive just added the latest infor from us to that thread

Avalon

10th March 2006, 10:25 AM

2.68 :raebanana going the right way!

Wannaway

14th March 2006, 07:17 PM

The exchnage rate touched 2.74 to the pound today, but has slipped back to 2.73 - however all good signs of a slippery slope for the over valued Kiwi $ and plenty of encouragment for those of us holding back on changing up!

Debbie

14th March 2006, 09:08 PM

Currency: Kiwi falls across the board NZ herald online

14.03.06 6.00 pm

The New Zealand dollar took a dive today after weaker than expected retail sales data for January.

Statistics New Zealand said retail sales figures for January were unchanged from December, against economists' forecasts of a 0.6 percent rise.

Excluding cars, sales were up 0.1 percent.

The kiwi slumped across the board today, falling 1 percent to 20 month lows against the US dollar and hitting two year lows against the Australian dollar.

At 5pm the kiwi was fetching a session low of US63.30c, over US1c lower than the US64.27c it was fetching at the same time yesterday, and down from US64.16c it was fetching before this morning's data release.

The retail sales data reinforced economists' views that the Reserve Bank was likely to cut interest rates before the end of the year, despite RB governor Alan Bollard saying last week he did not expect an easing this year.

The kiwi also dropped against its Australian counterpart, falling to A86.38c at 5pm today from A87.64c at the local close yesterday.

The likelihood that interest rates will fall has pushed the kiwi out of favour despite New Zealand having the highest interest rates in the developed world.

The focus will also soon fall on New Zealand's massive current account deficit. The December quarter data due on March 23 is likely to show the deficit ballooning out to nearly 9 percent of GDP.

The US dollar lost ground against other major currencies as support from last week's strong US jobs report evaporated.

Traders said the US dollar's inability to hold last Friday's gains on the stronger-than-expected rise in February US non-farm payrolls suggests future interest rate increases may already be factored into the dollar.

So there may be more movement still to come.
Debbie

Moorf

16th March 2006, 09:17 PM

$2.72... c'moooooooonnnnn :nice1

Marie P

16th March 2006, 09:39 PM

Drum roll please..............we are getting $2.7185........[they have logged it at that ,but won't actually move the money till monday ,so I hope it doesn't go up much more ]

Marie x

Rabbit

17th March 2006, 01:36 AM

NZ $2.74 = UK £1 at 14:34 16th March

Woops, it is now $2.75 at 15:11, time for a cup of tea.

Perhaps time for a sweepstake? :)

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/11/16/default.stm

katandbob

17th March 2006, 02:28 AM

oooh the tension..do I bid now or wait.....my nerves are getting bad!

1.00 GBP = 2.75098 NZD
Kat

zardell

17th March 2006, 02:58 AM

I hope the rate keeps improving. Back to 3.40, I think my Mum remembers it when she went there on holiday....many years ago! :)

Could we see this again I wonder ??

Julie

xx

Debbie

17th March 2006, 03:17 AM

If you don't need the cash straight away is there any point in doing a spot buy on currency?. I don't understand a great deal about all this but it appears to me that you are so much better off doing a forward purchase. Wandering if I've missed a trick here.
As I understand it I get a better rate for a forward, get to keep 90% of my cash for longer (so can cash up some house money we don't yet have if the rate is tempting enough) and can set a target and them forget about it.
Is spot buying realy only used if you need the currency now?.
Debbie

Wannaway

17th March 2006, 10:46 AM

I guess going for a spot rate may make you a bit "nimbler". You are right though, if you don't need the cash right away then a forward rate contract can be convenient, as you say, pick a rate put down a deposit and wait for it to go to that rate.

One possible issue with a fwd rate is that, I think, when the exchange rate hits that rate your money will automatically convert. Ie if you specify 2.95 to a pound and the rate hits that (oh please god!) then the forward contract will automatically kick in and buy at that rate. This has upside if you are hitting the peak of the rate, but you may feel a bit aggrieved if the exchange rate keeps on going down to NZ$3 and beyond - hence a spot rate makes you a bit nimbler as you can pick your time to exchange.

Personally I think you are better having in your head a rate you would be happy to exchange at and go wth that - you will go mad trying to second guess the market otherwise.

Bubbles

17th March 2006, 11:16 AM

Hi Wannaway, it's only me.
What advice could/can you give about transferring co. pensions over to NZ.( Any advice would be more than welcome, solong as its in plain English )
At this present moment in time my brain is all full up. One of the joys of emmigrating. :D

:cheers

John

Jaideco

17th March 2006, 01:08 PM

After reading the last page of posts, I just thought I would congratulate everyone fortunate enough to be benefiting from the current shifts in the exchange rates. :D

Unfortunately I have already lost the equivalent of £2,000 from my annual salary since I accepted the job due to the shifting exchange rate so I am hoping that the rate shifts back again before I return to blighty.

(1 NZD = £0.45 in two years time would be just fab :laugh )

Avalon

17th March 2006, 01:19 PM

Every silver lining has a cloud!

Avalon

20th March 2006, 03:52 PM

4.45 today - Hifx quotes 2.78
:raebanana :raebanana :raebanana

Dammit - pension cheques already in brittania's bank. :wah

katandbob

20th March 2006, 05:16 PM

4.45 today - Hifx quotes 2.78
:raebanana :raebanana :raebanana

& its still there! :raebanana

jo b

20th March 2006, 07:33 PM

now the UK markets are open it is dropping further as all the gloomy economic predictions are unfolding.

I suspect above $3 to the pound by June/July

Rabbit

20th March 2006, 09:41 PM

2.81 against £ at 10:40

Avalon

20th March 2006, 09:43 PM

Boy do I wish I was buying this house now!

Paul & Rach

20th March 2006, 10:16 PM

Monday March 20, 6:14 PM
New Zealand dlr hits fresh 20-mth low vs US dlr

LONDON, March 20 (Reuters) - The New Zealand dollar hit a 20 month low against the U.S. dollar on Monday as investors continued to sell the currency on expectations that its interest rate premium would narrow due to weak economic fundamentals.
By 1004 GMT, the Kiwi stood at $0.6238, down 1.5 percent on the day -- having hit a low of $0.6246, its lowest in almost 2 years.

"All the fundamental news in New Zealand remains weak ... It seems to be a fairly solid unwind of what had been pretty large carry trades over the last few years," said Geoff Kendrick, currency strategist at Westpac in London.

"It's really starting to look like a slide which is difficult to pick the bottom for, it's got a lot of momentum."

StevieD

21st March 2006, 12:23 AM

Now up to $2.80 to the GBP - go on baby!! Keeps on like this Jo's prediction of $3 may seem a little conservative. But what is the downside of all this economically? Is NZ facing a depression or it is just the way this money thingy works? :)

willsken

21st March 2006, 12:33 AM

What do you reckon Steve....I could live with it hitting ohhhh say $5 - £ :laugh :laugh

treen74

21st March 2006, 12:58 AM

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/11/16/default.stm

Come on !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Rabbit

21st March 2006, 01:01 AM

But what is the downside of all this economically? Is NZ facing a depression or it is just the way this money thingy works? :)

... Just a guess....

- Exports may increase with increased employment in some sectors e.g. tourism
- Imports may become more expensive and could affect inflation
- Higher inflation can mean higher interest rates (though at the moment people expect a cut)
- Salaries / earnings may appear more attractive outside NZ increasing outflows and reducing inflows
- Foreign property investors will probably want to sell-up
- Other property investors will consider foreign equities (£,$,Euro)
- Higher air fares from NZ
- More difficultity for people paying off any debts back in UK/US
- Better return on selling UK/US Property and buying into NZ Market
- Better return on foreign pensions
- Possible rise in NZ Stockmarket
- Pressure on NZ in terms of wages and salaries to compete with Australia
- Better return on inbound foreign currency transfers
- Worse return on outbound foreign currency transfers

The US Dollar is expected to decline later this year once they have finished with rate hikes, so this may stave off the inflation threat e.g. oil prices etc.

The UK pound could go lower, as there is little chance of future rate hikes, due to falling consumer demand.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000081&sid=aAO2LtnsSLRM&refer=australia

StevieD

21st March 2006, 01:12 AM

So er.... could be good and bad for all of us? :laugh

Thanks rabbit!

Avalon

21st March 2006, 05:57 AM

...- Higher air fares from NZ
.

That'd be a bit bloody difficult - they are stratospheric as it is :(

Seriously though - i had a letter from a cunsumer club just last week (and the rate had only hit 2.7 - saying already that with rates rises - imports were going to go up in price - so now was the time to buy any imported big-ticket items.

Which im not sure is quite true - for a couple of things - the poor rate of 2.5 seems to it imports which hit the stores since Christmas and it will take time to filter through.

A couple of examples (finger in the wind - totally unscientific):

Books - $25 a pop last year $23 this year
Boots: Bought a pair last year $330 - this year they are $300.

Rabbit

21st March 2006, 06:12 AM

Avalon

Just a guess...

If consumer demand is tappering off (due to e.g. remorgage and higher interest rates), and the dollar is going lower, then I assume supplier margins are getting sqeezed?

Jaideco

21st March 2006, 11:19 AM

Are there any real measures that can be called upon to give an idea of how low the currency can realistically go?

I remember reading the thread about Goldman Sachs reporting the Kiwi Dollar being overvalued by 20%, well that was when we were at £0.39 and after 2 months we are halfway there already. I cannot decide whether to move as much money as I can into NZD now while it's cheap or keep it in £'s until it's stopped falling.

StevieD

21st March 2006, 06:46 PM

And it has gone to £1 = $2.81!

Avalon

21st March 2006, 07:39 PM

Avalon

Just a guess...

If consumer demand is tappering off (due to e.g. remorgage and higher interest rates), and the dollar is going lower, then I assume supplier margins are getting sqeezed?

Thats a good point - and I honestly dont know the answer. I dont THINK thats it -as it seems to be happening with imported goods, and with the boots for example - all the shops have them priced the same - as they did last year. I have a feeling that if it was cunsumer force that was causing the price drop - you would see more of price difference between stores.

Also -while interest rates are increasing - so cost of living is increasing - I have read several times that consumer debt is also increasing ( v v fast), so spending is not actually being curtailed too much yet. (Though this infor may be out of date as its been a few months since I read anything along these lines).

However - as I had to buy a new pair of boots - Im a happy bunny :)

Moorf

23rd March 2006, 04:25 PM

2.78 :wah

StevieD

23rd March 2006, 07:03 PM

NEver mind moorf, but keep watching coz it is predicted to drop like a stone so... chin up!

Moorf

24th March 2006, 10:08 AM

Yay Stevie - $2.81 :raebanana

Wannaway

24th March 2006, 11:51 AM

Bad news/good news.

The bad news is that the NZ economy went into reverse in the last quarter of 05 - worse than anybody exepected. The good news is that the news sent the currency into a tailspan (now sitting at about 2.82). The dollar moved off 4c to the pound in about 10 minutes!

Growth for the economy was lower for 05 than predicted both by economists and the government. If the economy is slowing faster than the Reserve Bank thinks, there is an increased likelihood that NZ's high interest rate will come down sooner. This reduces the yield to currency speculators and the like, hence the flight (excuse the pun) from the kiwi $.

Good news on the exchange front, although nobody wants there to be a run of bad or worse economic news, as that may have an impact on employment propsects etc and all that that may mean for the good people of this forum.

Rabbit

24th March 2006, 08:49 PM

Looks like they are pricing in a long and slow decline? (forward rates from Crown exchange).

Delivery Period From To Exchange Rate
10 - 20 days 03/04/2006 13/04/2006 2.7361
21 - 30 days 14/04/2006 23/04/2006 2.7418
31 - 40 days 24/04/2006 03/05/2006 2.7474
41 - 50 days 04/05/2006 13/05/2006 2.7530
51+ days 14/05/2006 23/06/2006 2.7615
June 2006 24/06/2006 30/06/2006 2.7982
July 2006 01/07/06 31/07/06 2.8193
August 2006 01/08/06 31/08/06 2.8306
September 2006 01/09/06 30/09/06 2.8419
October 2006 01/10/06 31/10/06 2.8533
November 2006 01/11/06 30/11/06 2.8647
December 2006 01/12/06 31/12/06 2.8762
January 2007 01/01/07 31/01/07 2.8877
February 2007 01/02/07 28/02/07 2.8993
March 2007 01/03/07 31/03/07 2.9109
April 2007 01/04/07 30/04/07 2.9225
May 2007 01/05/07 31/05/07 2.9342

Request a Quote >>

Avalon

24th March 2006, 09:21 PM

Wow rabbit - thats really great - ive never seen those numbers before. If its not a silly question - how do you get to them?

willsken

24th March 2006, 09:37 PM

Don't understand, they are pricing for April being under what it is now....sorry need someone to explain! :o

Rabbit

25th March 2006, 12:00 AM

Wow rabbit - thats really great - ive never seen those numbers before. If its not a silly question - how do you get to them?

http://www.crowncurrencyexchange.com/content/new-zealand-dollars.asp

Avalon

I hadn't either, just found the above link on one of my trawls. I agree the rates they are offering for April are not good, it was more the trend I was looking at.

Perhaps they offer better rates on larger amounts?

Rabbit