[mathmussim]

I saw this here in the US. It's predicting global economic meltdown. Did anyone see it in NZ?

http://tvnz.co.nz/view/tvone_minisite_story_skin/653276?format=html

There are folks here in the US that sing a similar tune, but you wouldn't find them on mainstream media. Do you think it reflects a general sense of uneasiness about the economy in the overall population, or do you believe it was just a sensationalist way to get viewers?

Thanks for the comments -

John

[clg]

There are always predections like this, and I am sure the author plans to reap a tidy profit from his predictions. I think his main interest is in selling books.

Having said that I think it is possible this sort of collapse could happen but keep in mind too the vested interest of everyone in not letting things fall apart too badly. I also think people take on far more debt than they should.

One thing that does really strike me is how 'rich' the US really is just from a buying power standpoint most goods there are really quite inexpensive compare to just about anywhere else, not just NZ. I do really think the US is going to have some adjustments in standard of living but I think that more likely than a large collpase is a greater imbalance between rich and poor that will just continue to grow over time, that will probably lead to a whole host of problems but it will take longer to manifest.

I can say that IF something like this ever happened I would much rather be in Wellington than in Los Angeles!

[Amerikiwi]

Hi John,
I`m an American living in New Zealand, and I did see the interview you`re talking about the other day. I`m not sure just HOW the U.S. will climb out of a ($12 trillion?) hole which is currently the national debt, but I do know 2 things... 1) George W has done NOTHING to fix the problem... quite the contrary, in fact. He`s such a reckless jerk, but that`s something I don`t want to get started on... not enough room on ths web for it! 2) Whatever happens to the U.S. economy will have an effect on the rest of the world.
There was another news article I saw here a couple of months ago, and they said the Americans public is now officially spending more money than they earn. I hate the "gloom and doom" thoughts that keep creeping into my mind, but you don`t have to be Alan Greenspan to know something`s gotta give when a country has that kind of debt and it continues to grow at an astronomical rate.
Due to its geographic location and limited dependence on the U.S., New Zealand is actually one of the few countries feeling the smallest effect if and when America does come tumbling down.

[GeorgeM]

Why do we in the west think that we deserve a cushier life whilst not being prepared to put in the graft?

The whole of history is one of the rise and subsequent decline of great empires - the strength, industry and vitality of founding generations being subsequently erroded by increasingly lazy generations who follow.

As generations pass each expects to have more but to do less, and before you know it you get the totally unsustainable situation you see in the US today. Americans see their high standard of living as their birthright, yet expect to achieve it with far less effort than was put in to generate an 'inferior' lifestyle several generations back.

In the developing world, on the other hand, there is a hunger to get on and to achieve more - within living memory many of today's urban Indians and Chinese would have been subsistance farmers working all the time just to feed themselves and their families. Working half as many hours again as westerners for a fraction of their wages is a step forward for them and so they throw themselves at it with gusto. In the same way as those in the UK did during our industrial revolution - long hours, small rewards but it was better than being in the country and formed the basis for the economy the UK has today.

Western cultures have a flabby attitude, and seem to deliberate inhibit any sort of competition with these emerging economies. We can insist on making employers pay unrealistic wages, provide welfare systems that do nothing to encourage the workshy to provide for themselve, focus on eductional systems that have 'cultural sensitivity' as their overriding aim and use the RMA to strangle any attempt to improve the country's infrastructure, AND feel good about how superior we are a society for doing so, but in the end this just hastens the day when we are amongst the poor of the world and today's poor has replaced us (i.e. westerners) at the top of the tree.

[Amerikiwi]

You`re right, George, and the "changing of the guard" between America (as well as other countries) and China is something most of us Westerners would prefer not to think about, but is happening in a huge way even as we speak. I can`t speak for all Western countries, but we`ve all been like a bunch of over fed spoiled brats in America for a long time. Most middle class Americans are living in a bubble, I`m afraid.

[jess]

Thanks for the link. What struck me most watching the video was actually that Wal-Mart buys 5% of all exported consumer goods from China. They said if Wal-Mart were a nation (heaven forbid) they would be China's eighth biggest trading partner!

With our debt and the baby boomers getting older, it just seems like something's going to have to give, and it also seems like Americans will have very little tolerance for coming to terms with it.

Jessica

[mathmussim]

Yes, something's got to give. Wal-Mart is the #1 employer in the US. It pays low wages, and few employees get health benefits. It's hard to imagine how those workers can grind out a decent life, which is getting more and more difficult with the rising inflation here. Pretty shameful that a company run by 2 or 3 of the top 10 billionaires in the US won't provide health care. Wal-Mart is a big contributor to the phenomena of the vanishing American middle class.

I don't know how familiar folks in NZ are with Wal-Mart. I certainly hope there is no equivalent there. This is a pretty good article on the Wal-Mart phenomena:

http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0219/p01s04-usec.html

One economic dilemma for the US involves Wal-Mart. Bush wants China to revalue their currency up, but that would raise all of the Wal-Mart prices, and thus increase inflation. Keeping the currency low discourages US exports. I don't think any of the possible outcomes look very good.

[StevieD]

......... it just seems like something's going to have to give, and it also seems like Americans will have very little tolerance for coming to terms with it.

And I find that very worrying, not to be rude to our American forumites, but I have no faith in the people who run America. They seem to think that they can just muscle their way around the world, much the same as any "dictatorship" in the past saw as their right to do.

Having just enjoyed a very nice, if cold, celebration of Chinese New Year in Liverpool today, the oldest Chinese community in Europe, I don't have any qualms about them as a race. They are pleasant people, who don't try to impose their will on where they live, work hard and keep their heads down.
Liverpool is also twinned with Shanghai, and that has brought all sorts of economic and cultural benefits to the city, making it a richer place. I think the many thousands of people who turned out today would also feel the same way.

[DrPhred]

Just don't confuse the american govenment with the american people. Yes, nearly 51% of the people who voted, voted for Bush and his crew, but that's far from a majority of us. Many, many of us are appalled at how the US government behaves at home and around the world. Bush has publicly declared himself to be above the laws, both here and international laws. Don't expect any rationality out of the US government for at least 3 more years. That's how long Bush has left in office. (unless he decides that the election laws don't apply to him either)

[GeorgeM]

I think that this whole thing goes far far further than governments and politicians. It's all down to prevailing attitudes within societies, and it is these that will be responsbile for the changing of the guard in terms of the world pecking order.

In the west, generally, we want too much for too little and are willing to be very wasteful. IMO that does mean most americans. But also most brits, and most kiwis and most europeans also. And I include myself in this - we are all products of the societies that created us.

Consider for a few minutes what you think is a reasonable amount of effort a working person should put into life, and what salary you think that they should get for that, and what they should be able to purchase with that salary. Then try to imagine what would have been your answer if you were asked the question in 1956 or 1906 or 1856 - you will probably percieve a steady 'improvement' in the effort/reward payoff. But it has to stop somewhere - work can't continually decline whilst rewards increase. I think that we've only survived in this crazy cycle for so long because the developing nations haven't been able to get onto the conveyor belt, for whatever reason. But that is now changing - they are prepared to accept the 1956 or 1906 effort/rewards balance and this will knock us into oblivion.

As a rule we now expect to have lots and lots of unnecessary things, and see little contradiction in voting Green at 11am on the way to the mall to buy a load of superfluous junk. We see nothing wrong in attending a 'save the planet' demonstration dressed in the latest fashion which will be thrown away in a couple of months whilst still being perfectly wearable (albeit by someone with 'no idea').

There was an article in The Press (Chch) last Saturday where mothers were saying how difficult it was now to sort out parties for their young (3 upwards) children because of the expectations of what should be in the 'party bag'. Everyone felt that they had to outdo each other lest their child became a 'playground pariah'. If this isn't an example the road to destruction of our own making then I don't know what is - we spend money we say that we haven't got on bits of junk that the kids don't need which has caused massive pollution to produce and transport which the planet can't take just so that we keep up with all the other dotty mums and dads who are doing the same. Oblivion here we come!

[StevieD]

George, a bit gloomy, but spot on! You only have to look at the packaging on "goods" to realise that we are on the road to ruin. What is wrong with brown paper bags for fruit / veg like it used to be?

And DrPhred, I am not blaming the American people per se, heaven knows we have our own presidential ne'er do wrong in power in this country too, hanging off Bush's coat tails. But a sizeable portion of them put the Bush clan back in power, that is how "democracy" works, and we have to abide by that

[willsken]

I think all parents can be guilty of giving their children too much at times. I am very conscious of this and try very hard not to. It's a shame that very often this leaves my children without the things the vast majority of their friends have. To be fair to my boys this doesn't seem to worry them overly. I didn't go to university to train as a teacher until I was 26 and we were so short of money during this time they had very little. It seems they are still quite grateful for anything we buy them now.

[Quote]In the west, generally, we want too much for too little and are willing to be very wasteful. IMO that does mean most americans. But also most brits, and most kiwis and most europeans also. And I include myself in this - we are all products of the societies that created us.[Quote/]

It's a shame to see NZ included in the list. I seemed some how to have formed the impression that we were getting away from a materialistic society. This was one of my motivations for going in the first place.

[StevieD]

Likewise Nicola, I was under the impression that NZ wasn't anywhere near as bad as other parts of the world. But the one eyed god in the corner of the room has an awful lot to do with fomenting this type of society. Now that isn't to say that I begrudge my children anything, but the materialistic nature of the UK at least is really ridiculous. That isn't to say that you have to live like that I know, but it is bloody hard when it is rammed down your throat at each and every opportunity. Same goes for ads for food - no wonder there is so much disease and obesity, the way the companies target children for their so called "healthy" options is disgusting. I think NZ will be a step in the right direction, because you have more opportunity to channel the kids away from some of it - isn't tv awful down there? I know when we go camping to the lake district, the kids don't miss it - too busy having a good time being kids lol.
But back on thread, our materialistic tendencies have to be curtailed because the world is going to be ruined if this greed continues.

[willsken]

Hi Stevie
Yes I hope we will be moving in the right direction. I hate the way we waste so much money on things. We didn't miss the TV when we went round NZ in our camper (except the footy) and I hope my boys will watch even less than they do in the UK (not HUGE TV watchers) when we get there :roll

[GeorgeM]

It's a shame to see NZ included in the list. I seemed some how to have formed the impression that we were getting away from a materialistic society. This was one of my motivations for going in the first place.I do think that NZ is behind (or should that be in front?) of much of the western world in its materialism, but unfortunately it is only a matter of degree. It's really the whole western lifestyle that is a problem.

If you could say that on a 'wastefulness' or 'consumption' scale of 1 to 100 the world should be at 25, and that the US is at 98 then NZ would be in the 80s, perhaps. A little better but still miles from the target. NZ currently has its largest balance of payments deficit for 20 years, and that has resulted largely from people going mad to buy imported consumer goods because the high dollar makes them all seem very cheap. For the time being at least...

Whatever age you are think of the expectations your parents had when you were growing up - I would wager that almost without exception they expected to spend more of their time working (not just paid work - consider the full portfolio of household chores as well), expected fewer treats or indulgencies and when they did treat themselves tended to do so with far more modest things than we would expect these days.

Remember the days when no one had a dishwasher? More work to do at home but less damage to the environment (no manufacturing/transportation costs for the machine, far less energy taken per plate to get the dishes clean). And when people clipped their hedges and mowed their lawns with hand-powered tools rather than with noisy energy consuming power tools? And when many people had allottments to grow their own veg - now (if they haven't been developed for housing) allottment holders will generally either be geriatrics or 'greenies' wanting to ensure that they have organic produce. For the rest of us we'd rather not take the time or effort. We claim, don't we, that we don't have time to do these things - but often that time is just spent watching TV, or down the pub, or sitting on the deck with a glass of wine watching the sun go down.

The house I grew up in, which was built in 1954, had 3 power sockets in the whole house!!! One in the kitchen, one in the lounge and one on the upstairs landing! That is a telling statement on the importance of labour saving gadgets in the 1950s. In our kitchen/diner alone we now have 28! Some are for convenience and are hardly ever used, but at least 10 have something plugged in permanently that is used almost on a daily basis.

Yet people survived in the 1950s, and if the surveys can be believed were far more content with their lives than we are today.

To my mind there certainly is a big problem when one of the items a claimant (i.e. someone who is not contributing directly to the economic value of society) can EXPECT to have (and can be provided with if they don't) is a working colour TV set! Such is the crazy level to which our expectations have ballooned.

All the conspicuous consumption of the modern world is seen as progress (indeed it is often the aim of developing societies to get to western levels of wastefulness, God help us), and it is very hard to imagine any 'democratic' government being willing to really tackle this issue as the immediate effects would be so unpleasant. We'd have to do without so many things we consider to be essential. We'd have to learn to enjoy more simple pleasures - reading / playing games / talking to each other / listening to a wind-up radio perhaps. We'd have to be happy with travelling less - holidays 50 miles from home rather than the other side of the world. Can you imagine any government in a western democracy that imposed this sort of life on its people being re-elected 3 or 5 years down the track? Many of the UK v NZ debates that have raged in this forum have used the availability or otherwise of cheap airfares as an indication of how desirable a society is to live in. Nice as mass long distance travel is (and I've been a major pollutant here) it's unsustainable.

Perhaps a real world oil crisis would do us all good - if petrol really went through the roof we'd think twice about all of our trips. If electricity was three times the price we'd look hard at whether we really needed the convenience of some of our luxuries.

I admit to being part of the problem - I don't have the self discipline to take the hard road when there is a fairly cheap and far easier option. Someone or something has to make me.

[willsken]

Thank you for the explanation. You are quite right in what you say. We are all guilty of waste, I hold my hands up to it (although I am not as bad as some) I am very conscious of wasting electric, in the sense of unnecessary lights left on, TV off if not being WATCHED rather than being used as background noise etc. BUT I like the modern convenience of life. I think nothing of buying ready prepared veg so I don't waste time chopping a carrot etc. You are also right about no government being able to enforce this on anyone. We have been allowed to get used to a certain way of life that would be unbearably hard to give up. When I was growing up my parents strived to give me MORE than what they had. I am trying hard to make sure my boys don't keep getting MORE. The have plenty now and it should be enough.

I don’t have any answers, I just know I don’t like the way the world is headed. Is it too late to turn it around?