jo b
19th October 2004, 08:16 AM
Economic outlook
The New Zealand economy is in the midst of a prolonged growth phase, which we expect to strengthen further during 2004 and 2005. Interest rates were raised twice in early 2004, bringing monetary policy back to a neutral, or perhaps still slightly stimulatory, setting. In the near term, we do not foresee further rises in interest rates of the magnitude necessary to curtail the growth upswing over the next couple of years.
Strong domestic demand over the past two to three years has been offset by weakness in external demand as a result of the world downturn. However, recent data for the March quarter 2004 showed extremely strong growth of 2.3 per cent over the December quarter 2003 (in seasonally adjust, constant price terms), reinforcing our belief in the ongoing strength of the economy. We now expect real GDP growth to run at or above 4 per cent in each of 2004 and 2005.
The strength of growth through this year and next will be spurred by an upturn in business investment and a continuation of the residential upturn, and more generally by solid drivers on both the domestic and external sides of the economy. But the prolonged upturn will come to an end at some stage. Tightening labour markets, along with other cost pressures, will gradually emerge in a strongly growing economy. This will eventually lead to a tightening of monetary policy, which, on our forecasts, will induce a slowdown around 2007, with a possible further weakening in 2008.
This was taken from Lj Hooker site.
IMHO if the economy slows there will be less jobs so really now is the best time to get over to NZ.
Cheers
Jo
The New Zealand economy is in the midst of a prolonged growth phase, which we expect to strengthen further during 2004 and 2005. Interest rates were raised twice in early 2004, bringing monetary policy back to a neutral, or perhaps still slightly stimulatory, setting. In the near term, we do not foresee further rises in interest rates of the magnitude necessary to curtail the growth upswing over the next couple of years.
Strong domestic demand over the past two to three years has been offset by weakness in external demand as a result of the world downturn. However, recent data for the March quarter 2004 showed extremely strong growth of 2.3 per cent over the December quarter 2003 (in seasonally adjust, constant price terms), reinforcing our belief in the ongoing strength of the economy. We now expect real GDP growth to run at or above 4 per cent in each of 2004 and 2005.
The strength of growth through this year and next will be spurred by an upturn in business investment and a continuation of the residential upturn, and more generally by solid drivers on both the domestic and external sides of the economy. But the prolonged upturn will come to an end at some stage. Tightening labour markets, along with other cost pressures, will gradually emerge in a strongly growing economy. This will eventually lead to a tightening of monetary policy, which, on our forecasts, will induce a slowdown around 2007, with a possible further weakening in 2008.
This was taken from Lj Hooker site.
IMHO if the economy slows there will be less jobs so really now is the best time to get over to NZ.
Cheers
Jo