[jess]

:confused: I'm a bit confused now heading into June. The NZ dollar is widely expected to fall around the end of the year or early next year. The US dollar is widely expected to fall over the coming months though which could offset any NZ$ drop.

We will have access to the proceeds from the sale of our home in about a week. But we are willing to stay in a rental for several months if it looks like we will have a better exchange later, because the rate makes such a difference in how much we end up with.

Of course nobody really knows what the currencies will do, but I am particularly uninformed, having only started looking at currency over the last few months, and I know as much about it as I do, say, astrophysics or pro wrestling. Not so much then.

So far I have only found separate info on NZD and USD. I'm trying to put them together to see if there's a substantial enough reason to play the odds and hold off on money transfer until the end of 06. Does anybody know any good references besides Bloomberg or have any thoughts? Or perhaps a psychic gift? ;)

Thanks!
J

[willowshouse]

Found this piece on US$/NZ$ when I was looking for £/NZ$ comparisons .. it's a bit wordy!

http://www.fxcmtr.com/news-and-charts/currency-forecast/forecast-nzd-usd.html

Good luck!
Dawn

[jess]

Thanks Dawn! That's really helpful. (Although I don't necessarily like the news if the USD weakens.) Great link though!

J

[tigerlily]

Sorry, I haven't read the link, but I've been listening to a lot of financial news on NPR and stuff. My impression is that the US economy is on the upswing again. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates again and again, through December. Greater interest rates should cause an increase in the US dollar. The interest rates in NZ are the highest anywhere (which is part of why the NZ dollar is so high) and they are making noises about their interests rates needing to fall. They actually want the Kiwi dollar to fall because it is hurting their exports so much.

Ok, so the outcome of all that for me is- wait to move your US dollars until December or the first half of next year. Predictions are for the NZ economy to slow until '08 and then to seriously take off again.

But hey, I'm a stay a home mom- no financial expert!!

[toesonthenose]

Rising interest rates will help the US$, but watch out! The Bush deficits continue to add to the instability of the dollar, I would anticipate a very bumpy ride. Also watch for international efforts to move oil off of the US$ and onto the Euro. Petrodollars are the only thing proping up the US$ now, and Iran and Venezuela are rumbling about trading oil in Euros. Saddam tried that in late 2001/early 2002, and that didn't work very well for him or the U.S.

[tigerlily]

I agree that the US dollar long term is a bad bet because of the deficit and more. Today the employment numbers were not as good as expected, so they are now saying they don't think the Fed will raise interest rates at the June meeting. I guess it's back to the crystal ball.

[jess]

It's all a "definite maybe" isn't it? For a while I thought the NZD would go much further down versus the USD, but now I just don't know. Whatever we do though... I'll be looking back with hindsight kicking myself. Ah well.

Thanks very much for the input! :D

J