[MB]

Sorry to start another thread, but I'm sitting here wondering if I have my math wrong about this IMPORTANT figure!

A mid-September thread here talked about the low pass mark and hinged some quota-numbers reckonings on the February start (or near-start) date of the SMC.

But surely Feb. isn't the significant start date when you're trying to work out numbers approved and applied so far? Surely it's July onwards, 'cos that's the start of the NZIS financial year (and hence when their new immigration quota figure starts)? Which is good news for folks who have applied recently, because it means we can more or less halve the number who have applied/been approved so far. Because Feb- through end of June doesn't 'count' any more (it was just a tack-on to the old GSC numbers).

Or have I really screwed up?

Matt.

[shagen]

Hi Matt,

I maybe wrong but I think I read somewhere that the quota runs from 1st April to 31st March.

Cheers,

[MB]

Thanks. You could well be right. But look at the quote below extracted from Paul Sawin's very recent speech introducing the new Amendments, and also note the small type below the approval/declines table in the fortnightly fact sheets...they run from July 1. One more thing: I've checked other (e.g., banking) sites (or even this goverment one http://www.police.govt.nz/resources/2004/annual-report/) , and their financial year seems to run July-Jun. Anyway, the quote:

"The number of EOI's selected since February 2004 total 11,387 and represent a total of 28,337 people.

In this financial year the Department has accepted 1638 applications for residence under the skilled migrant category and has approved 1216 applications consisting of a total of 3055 people."

Matt.

[MB]

Oops. That should be "Swain". And on the police link you may have to scroll down and click on "Annual Report 2004".

And as you imply, maybe I'm missing the point anyway!

Matt.

[shagen]

Matt,

You are right! Somebody must have gotten their dates mixed up! :roll: :uhoh

Cheers,

[MB]

Thanks, but hmmm... even if I am right, that's (subtracting February) still 20993 people to date who have had their prinicpal applicant's EOI selected.

If you subtract the 20-30% of projected "early rejections" (NZIS-rejected or self-motivated drop-outs) that comes to somewhere between 14000-16000 people acceptable at the maximum -- i.e., all eventually accepted -- for the Jul-Jun year so far.
And the NZIS maximum quota for SMC is 22000 people for Jul-Jun (if I'm right about their calendar workings).

So either the pass mark will rise soon, or my figures don't account for drop-outs much later in the whole 9-step process, or they'll just reach their quota soon then stop at, say, Easter (not likely - I must be wrong there, surely!!)

Matt.

[shagen]

Matt,

Logically it works out that way but in this instance I sure hope you are wrong :mrgreen:

Cheers,

[MB]

At a glance, perhaps the most compelling reason for optimism is the constant low pass mark. After all, they set it knowing how many apps. they will harvest by picking a certain mark. Although they want to encourage the self-correcting nature of the system, they're also not out to make pointless extra work for themselves by picking large numbers of utterly hopeless applications.
I think!

Matt.

[MB]

Something else to consider is whether or not the '2-year-work-permit' ITA outcomes will be included in the 22000 quota come next June. Consider that the whole point of this route is that PR decision is deferred two years.

So that might give some of us (even) more hope, esp. those in the running without job offers. That is, it might be that 22000 get in and some 2-year-permit routers on top of that total.

Matt.

[Annierobrigado]

hi matt

what was the quota last year? did the figure drop this year or increase? if it increased, then we could look at it as a positive sign, that maybe they do need a lot of migrants to populate the country?

annie