Any thoughts on the exchange rate at present?

[Madoxen]

STRONG STERLING MOMENTUM TESTED IN EARLY MORNING SELL OFF

The British Pound was among the top performing currencies to finish the week’s trade, as relatively bullish fundamental developments helped push the currency from major bearish sentiment extremes. The highly-anticipated Bank of England monetary policy statement predictably shook FX markets, sending the British Pound immediately higher on unexpectedly limited actions from the central bank. The BoE expanded its Quantitative Easing measures by £25 billion to £200Bn—normally a bearish fundamental shift. Yet financial markets are all about discounting expectations, and consensus forecasts of a £50Bn change meant that the British Pound actually rallied on the news. Whether or not the GBP can continue recent gains may depend on the coming week’s employment numbers, but previously-extreme FX market positioning suggests that risks remain to the topside through the foreseeable future.

See http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...Breakouts.html for more details.

[Madoxen]

The New Zealand dollar has started to give back some of its recent gains as waning risk appetite is weighing on the high yielder. Previously, the com-dollar sharply rose taking its cue from soaring equity markets which found support on the prospect of continued government stimulus. Commodities which explain 63% of NZD/USD volatility were also lifted by the prospect of continued public spending. However, prices for raw materials were relatively subdued. The RJ/CRB index which is made up of a basket of 19 commodities has seen its current downtrend remain intact which may be a sign that kiwi weakness is ahead. Meanwhile, RBNZ interest rate expectations have taken a back seat to risk trends as it has become clear that the central bank isn’t following the RBA’s lead and embarking on a tightening policy in the near-term. The outlook for future yields has seen its influence fall to 8% from 21% a month ago, when a 2009 rate hike was thought to be a certainty.

full article at http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...r_At_Risk.html