Changes in NZ's Climate - East to Get Drier, West Wetter.

John Miller

Get used to wild weather
23 March 2004

Global warming means New Zealanders should get used to more extreme weather events similar to last month's severe storms, a top climate expert says.

Niwa senior climate scientist Jim Salinger told a 2004 Environment Summit in Wellington yesterday that global warming would lead to more deluges in some areas and droughts in others.

"February's storms are a graphic example of what happens when you heat things up."

In February, many lower North Island areas had between 500 and 700 per cent of their normal monthly rainfall. Repair bills and cleanup costs are expected to run into hundreds of millions of dollars.

Dr Salinger said global warming was expected to cause a rise in temperatures of between 0.5 and 3.5 degrees celsius by 2100. But because the deluges would hit specific areas, there was likely to be too little rain in others.

Dr Salinger said New Zealand was likely to become drier in the east and wetter in the west.

The north of the North Island had already been getting drier.

At the same time the north, west and south of the South Island had become wetter, he said.

Predicting effects in specific areas was difficult, as global warming was only one factor influencing our climate. Other factors – such as the El Nino – played a big part in determining our weather patterns.

Dr Salinger predicted dramatic rainfall increases in the west of both islands and drier weather in the east throughout the 21st century.

Latest scenarios and climate model results indicated westerly airflows were likely to strengthen over New Zealand as the planet warmed.

"One thing is certain – global warming is here to stay."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,2852625a11,00.html

justin.g.s · Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2004 8:42 am Post subject:

Hi, I graduated with a degree in Environmental Science from U.C.L.A in America.

The topic of global warming came up in all of my classes. After studying this topic for four years, and follwoing it for the last ten years since then; I can tell you one thing with absolute certainty when it comes to the theory of global warming....

No one knows for sure. And if they claim to know for sure, ask them for tomorrows lottory numbers, because they must be psychic.

Take what you hear with a grain of salt. The only FACT out there is that they still dont know what effect warming may have.

There is no concensus on the anticipated effects of the observed increase in temperature. I recently read an article that suggested that an increase in temperature is a precursur to a RAPIDLY encroaching ice age.

Nature is in itself cyclical, and the number of factors that is involved in predicting weather on a global scale is mind boggling.

How often is your local weather guide wrong, these people in general use the same technology. There is a reason it is called,"predicting the weather."

Using a crystal ball to,"predict" what will come is nearly as accurate. Nature will do as she pleases and there is little we can do about it. Including guessing what she is going to do next.

Justin

veronica · Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2004 9:26 am Post subject:

I like this man

rodders · Valued Member Joined: 25 Nov 2003 Posts: 134

justin.g.s · Posted: Tue Apr 06, 2004 9:06 am Post subject:

Wow, I never expected to meet the all mighty on on a web board.

Imagine my luck!!!! So as long as I have your attention, why don't you do some real good.......... and grant all of us here instant residency status Mr. Green

YOU KNOW.................. that would really make our day.

rodders · Valued Member Joined: 25 Nov 2003 Posts: 134

well, controlling the weather is child's play, but controlling the NZIS.................................... Wink

JCM