Selection point announced as 170- 28/04/04...

karltsmith

We're under starters orders! Nutcase

With 170 points Wink

Finally a decent drop of 10 points in the selection point...long may that continue! Clapping

Do you think NZIS are getting the message? Hmmm

Jammie...did you have anything to do with this? Laughing

I look forward to receiving the preliminary check info! Will post as we move through the process for the future benefit of all! Nice One

Karl

evelynne_r · I Like It Here Joined: 25 Jan 2004 Posts: 94

Hi Karl,

I'm in the same position as you - exciting, isn't it?

623 EOIs were selected, which is a good number. They must be becoming more confident with their systems, and that must be good.

For those of you who have already received their Invitations to Apply, what was the timescale between selection and receiving the invite?

Cheers,

Evelynne

Jamie Smith

A personal effort on your behalf Karl, namesakes after all. Nice One

Now that NZIS are entering a period towards end of financial year where a pick made today is unlikely to get final approval within the next 8 weeks, NZIs will crank it up, play a bit of catch up.

For everyone in the pool who lodged recently this is good news, and might save a few from being lapsed.

These last two weeks saw 146 new entrants, so the pick of 600+ will clean out the pool a wee bit. If the same ratio of newbies to picks follows, points will fall quickly and maybe a few more people's EOIs won't be wasted.

Then maybe word gets out to those who've held off, everyone jumps back in and we get a rebound. Assuming those waiting haven't lost interest.

I'm not convinced that plenty of people will gladly wait for the pendulum to swing their way, I think NZIS will have a low pool size when this thing settles, points then won't be high for long at any one period.

But the feel of the market is a bit worrying as on the BritishExpats forum the volume of posts from newbies for NZ have fallen away a fair bit, and to some degree same for UK2NZ and perhaps this one too.

I'd hoped the forums would be buzzing this far into the SMC policy , but it feels as though the market is holding back or started looking elsewheres.

As most overseas EOIs are without job offers, maybe these are the ones who've gone quiet, with such poor chance of getting in a present.

Perhaps an agent who reads this forum who has Aus and NZ market base can comment? Anybody??

Jamie Smith · Posted: Sun May 02, 2004 12:50 am Post subject: Trend spotting

These next few weeks will show the true nature of NZIs, how they handle lapsing, considering whether or not they want to help people or just save their Minister's bacon in the electorate.

Just 146 new EOIs received since last pick. NZIS have "caught up" by nearly 500 files. There's a possibility they went big on this one so fewer people would be lapsed, but I suspect the motive is not just to be kind (new thought for NZIS Laughing

), perhaps driven more by desire to minimise media fallout at the time the large bunch of skilled, employable people are lapsed.

However,a ssumigng NZIS are trying to be kind and also assuming lapsing is mid May not earlier, my guess is next pick will be at 160, another 600 files. Still a long way from 130 or so where the best non-job applicants are sitting.

Mid May or earlier, about 1300 to 1400 cases will be lapsed. This will leave just 1000 EOIs in the pool plus whatever number arrive in next few weeks.

Assume 200 new EOIS arrive and lapsing then takes place. This shows 1200 EOIs in remaining pool. If NZIS do 3 same sized picks the pool will be emptied by end of June....

Suspect NZIS will find that too embarrassing so will ALWAYS reduce the size of each pick to avoid emptying the pool ("Hello, anyone want to come to NZ? Anybody???" - echo, echo...)

But if we can assume all lapsed EOIs are evenly distributed across points. This will mean that if one large pick is followed by laspsing, then the pick for end of May will be 300 or so people at 140 points (so they'd don't yet have to verify offshore cases at 135 points).

If they extend the lapse date as goodwill gesture, it will take at least two more full sized picks after next one to get to the 130 pointers, around mid June. If they do cull the old EOIs, the 130s could be reached early June.

If new EOI inflow does not pick up soon, the pool could be emptied at every pick from August or so.

I would expect every man and his dog to be advertising NZ once we get to early July, as no job would be needed to get picked within 3 months.

Then b o i n g the points will shoot up and away we go again.

Blimmin' hopeless marketing system, it's 100% dedicated to queue management and nothignt to do with economic development. Dalziel's legacy, a good idea badly done.

karltsmith · Posted: Sun May 02, 2004 9:02 am Post subject:

A very interesting and inuitative assesment Jamie!

A week in politics/immigration is a long time! Are we to assume that the new SMC policy which discriminates against China and India is now going to fail because NZIS have P****D off so many people from other countries that these will be the only people seeking to join the pool?

Long term could this mean that to enter the pool NZIS may have to reduce the 100 point limit? If so will this expensive and badly administered policy have all been for nothing???

Questions..questions...questions!!! Hmmm